Sat, Oct 11, 2025·UBS Arena, Elmont
Washington Capitals 4, New York Islanders 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 29 | 214 | 06 | 429 |
| NYI | 03 | 113 | 120 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:50WSHMartin FehérváryAssists: Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 13:52WSHAliaksei ProtasAssists: Jakob Chychrun, Tom Wilson · Snap, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 9:50WSHRyan LeonardGWGAssists: Jakob Chychrun, Aliaksei Protas · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–0
- P2 15:30WSHAliaksei ProtasUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–0
- P2 18:51NYIAnthony DuclairPPAssists: Bo Horvat, Kyle Palmieri · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–1
- P3 4:28NYIMatthew SchaeferPPAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Bo Horvat · Poke, 0.17 xG4–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 17:47NYIMathew Barzal: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:44NYIKyle Palmieri: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:43WSHJakob Chychrun: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P3 3:26WSHMatt Roy: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 4:28WSHAlex Ovechkin: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Dowd
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Dubois – Protas11:42
xG 0.87–0.18 (83%)attempts 16–8goals 2–0
- Dowd – Duhaime – Sourdif9:49
xG 0.49–0.07 (88%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Strome – McMichael9:54
xG 0.39–0.37 (51%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Beauvillier – Lapierre – Leonard7:29
xG 0.36–0.44 (44%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Chychrun13:22
xG 0.95–0.42 (70%)attempts 18–10goals 2–0
- Carlson – Fehérváry13:17
xG 0.85–0.32 (73%)attempts 18–16goals 1–0
- Carlson – Chychrun2:04
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Palmieri – Lee – Barzal11:10
xG 0.44–0.54 (45%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Duclair – Horvat – Heineman9:56
xG 0.27–0.51 (35%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Pageau – Holmstrom – Shabanov8:18
xG 0.36–0.72 (33%)attempts 8–10goals 0–2
- Cizikas – Gatcomb – Tsyplakov7:43
xG 0.03–0.44 (7%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Mayfield – Schaefer15:51
xG 0.67–0.82 (45%)attempts 21–17goals 0–0
- DeAngelo – Romanov14:00
xG 0.35–0.78 (31%)attempts 14–19goals 0–2
- Pelech – Pulock11:59
xG 0.13–0.97 (12%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).