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Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 11, 2025·Ball Arena, Denver

Dallas Stars 5, Colorado Avalanche 4 (SO)

Away

Dallas Stars

5

Final

Shootout

Home

Colorado Avalanche

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 59% of the time.

COL winsDAL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
DAL1526111002522
COL01428216011439

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 18:51DALThomas HarleyAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Nils Lundkvist · Slap, 0.07 xG1–0
  2. P2 3:54COLMartin NecasAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Sam Malinski · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
  3. P2 10:07COLGavin BrindleyAssists: Victor Olofsson · Snap, 0.25 xG1–2
  4. P2 15:22DALNathan BastianAssists: Esa Lindell, Miro Heiskanen · Wrist, 0.90 xG2–2
  5. P2 18:25DALJason RobertsonAssists: Thomas Harley, Ilya Lyubushkin · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–2
  6. P3 0:34COLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Martin Necas · Snap, 0.19 xG3–3
  7. P3 1:58DALWyatt JohnstonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.22 xG4–3
  8. P3 10:46COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Martin Necas, Brent Burns · Snap, 0.05 xG4–4

Shootout

  1. 1. DAL Jason Robertson scored
  2. 2. COL Victor Olofsson stopped
  3. 3. DAL Matt Duchene stopped
  4. 4. COL Valeri Nichushkin scored
  5. 5. DAL Mikko Rantanen scored
  6. 6. COL Nathan MacKinnon stopped
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 8:19DALLian Bichsel: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 11:40COLJosh Manson: High sticking2 min
  3. P1 14:22DALThomas Harley: Cross checking2 min
  4. P2 0:15DALMikko Rantanen: High sticking2 min
  5. P2 4:41DALJustin Hryckowian: Fighting5 min
  6. P2 4:41COLRoss Colton: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 11:13COLCale Makar: Tripping2 min
  8. P3 7:38DALIlya Lyubushkin: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DAL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0COL
47% to win53% to win
← DAL attackCOL attack →
  1. P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Rantanen
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DALCOL
22Shots on goal39
3.3Expected goals3.9
41Shot attempts84
30Faceoffs won27
2Power plays5
15Penalty minutes9
17Hits19
25Blocked shots8
22Giveaways15
3Takeaways4

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Dallas Stars

Forward lines

  1. bestDuchene – Seguin – Johnston4:44

    xG 0.23–0.11 (68%)attempts 2–9goals 1–0

  2. Faksa – Bastian – Hryckowian2:04

    xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0

  3. Duchene – Seguin – Robertson3:46

    xG 0.20–0.22 (48%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0

  4. Steel – Bourque – Hryckowian2:13

    xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestLindell – Heiskanen12:29

    xG 1.17–0.47 (71%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0

  2. Lyubushkin – Harley2:26

    xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0

  3. Heiskanen – Harley2:29

    xG 0.11–0.11 (50%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0

Colorado Avalanche

Forward lines

  1. bestLehkonen – MacKinnon – Necas11:44

    xG 1.01–0.27 (79%)attempts 16–6goals 2–0

  2. Kelly – Kiviranta – Brindley3:22

    xG 0.07–0.10 (43%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0

  3. Olofsson – Colton – Drury4:10

    xG 0.05–0.29 (15%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1

  4. Nelson – Landeskog – Nichushkin9:31

    xG 0.73–1.07 (40%)attempts 18–4goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestSolovyov – Malinski5:19

    xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0

  2. Toews – Makar11:30

    xG 0.87–0.66 (57%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0

  3. Manson – Malinski3:11

    xG 0.26–0.11 (70%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

COL 3.9 xGDAL 3.3 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

COLDAL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 95/100 · #76 of 1312 this seasonSwing 2.71 · 8 goals in reachComeback index 24% (winner's lowest chance)
DAL 100%5050%50COL 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +28 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 59% of the time.

COL winsDAL wins

Simulated goal difference (COL − DAL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).