Sat, Oct 11, 2025·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Anaheim Ducks 7, San Jose Sharks 6 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 214 | 215 | 214 | 11 | 744 |
| SJS | 27 | 310 | 16 | 00 | 623 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:40SJSTyler ToffoliAssists: Will Smith, Macklin Celebrini · Slap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 11:12SJSRyan ReavesAssists: Adam Gaudette, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–2
- P1 11:53ANACutter GauthierAssists: Mason McTavish, Radko Gudas · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P1 15:14ANABeckett SenneckePPAssists: Mason McTavish, Olen Zellweger · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–2
- P2 5:21SJSMario FerraroAssists: Will Smith, Macklin Celebrini · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
- P2 6:19ANAAlex KillornAssists: Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–3
- P2 10:34SJSJohn KlingbergPPAssists: Macklin Celebrini, Will Smith · Slap, 0.19 xG3–4
- P2 17:14SJSAdam GaudettePPAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Dmitry Orlov · Slap, 0.16 xG3–5
- P2 19:29ANAChris KreiderPPAssists: Leo Carlsson, Troy Terry · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–5
- P3 5:34SJSJeff SkinnerAssists: Ty Dellandrea, Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–6
- P3 10:29ANACutter GauthierAssists: Mason McTavish, Beckett Sennecke · Tip-in, 0.09 xG5–6
- P3 19:09ANAChris KreiderAssists: Leo Carlsson, Troy Terry · Wrist, 0.17 xG6–6
- OT 0:46ANALeo CarlssonGWGAssists: Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.09 xG7–6
Penalties (10)
- P1 13:28SJSDmitry Orlov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 15:16SJSRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:16ANARoss Johnston: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:13SJSJohn Klingberg: Holding2 min
- P2 2:36SJSAdam Gaudette: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:54ANAOlen Zellweger: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:58ANAFrank Vatrano: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 12:53ANARyan Poehling: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P2 16:35ANAMason McTavish: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:07SJSTimothy Liljegren: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Celebrini won the faceoff against McTavish
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestMcTavish – Gauthier – Sennecke13:09
xG 1.61–0.05 (97%)attempts 32–5goals 1–0
- Killorn – Granlund – Vatrano7:33
xG 0.70–0.26 (73%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Killorn – Kreider – Carlsson3:04
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Kreider – Terry – Carlsson7:47
xG 0.44–0.40 (52%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Zellweger14:44
xG 2.17–0.24 (90%)attempts 28–8goals 2–0
- Gudas – LaCombe13:50
xG 0.30–0.12 (72%)attempts 18–9goals 0–1
- Helleson – Mintyukov10:27
xG 0.21–0.53 (29%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestReaves – Goodrow – Gaudette4:52
xG 0.19–0.03 (86%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
- Goodrow – Dellandrea – Graf2:19
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Skinner – Dellandrea – Graf6:58
xG 0.23–0.59 (28%)attempts 6–7goals 1–1
- Toffoli – Wennberg – Eklund10:06
xG 0.31–0.70 (30%)attempts 8–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Ferraro – Liljegren14:06
xG 0.38–0.54 (42%)attempts 11–22goals 1–0
- Orlov – Liljegren2:24
xG 0.00–0.36 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Orlov – Dickinson9:59
xG 0.25–0.74 (25%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).