Mon, Oct 13, 2025·TD Garden, Boston
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 29 | 29 | 05 | 423 |
| BOS | 011 | 312 | 010 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:09TBLAnthony CirelliAssists: Jake Guentzel, Gage Goncalves · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 13:16TBLAnthony CirelliAssists: Jake Guentzel, Gage Goncalves · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–0
- P2 0:39TBLYanni GourdeAssists: Pontus Holmberg, J.J. Moser · Snap, 0.21 xG3–0
- P2 1:09BOSCasey MittelstadtAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, Pavel Zacha · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P2 3:37TBLPontus HolmbergGWGAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Max Crozier · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–1
- P2 5:31BOSJordan HarrisAssists: David Pastrnak · Snap, 0.06 xG4–2
- P2 11:35BOSMorgan GeekieAssists: Pavel Zacha · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:16TBLEmil Lilleberg: Hooking2 min
- P1 3:46BOSViktor Arvidsson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 6:41TBLPontus Holmberg: Holding2 min
- P2 10:34TBLEmil Lilleberg: Holding2 min
- P2 10:34BOSMichael Eyssimont: Roughing removing opponents helmet2 min
- P2 14:24TBLPontus Holmberg: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:05TBLGage Goncalves: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:03BOSTanner Jeannot: Holding2 min
- P3 19:36TBLBrayden Point: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:36BOSViktor Arvidsson: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:51TBLErik Cernak: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Minten won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestGourde – Bjorkstrand – Holmberg9:15
xG 1.07–0.19 (85%)attempts 15–8goals 2–0
- Kucherov – Point – Hagel11:29
xG 0.57–0.23 (71%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
- Guentzel – Cirelli – Goncalves10:29
xG 0.56–0.25 (69%)attempts 6–11goals 2–1
- Douglas – Chaffee – Geekie4:03
xG 0.05–0.22 (20%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Cernak9:38
xG 0.61–0.21 (74%)attempts 8–12goals 2–1
- Crozier – Lilleberg9:24
xG 0.63–0.23 (73%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Hedman – Moser14:04
xG 0.41–0.26 (61%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestArvidsson – Zacha – Mittelstadt9:19
xG 0.26–0.15 (63%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Kuraly – Kastelic – Khusnutdinov5:10
xG 0.25–0.38 (40%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Eyssimont – Jeannot – Minten8:47
xG 0.23–0.83 (22%)attempts 13–12goals 0–2
- Lindholm – Pastrnak – Geekie11:07
xG 0.09–0.83 (10%)attempts 9–15goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Peeke – Harris13:16
xG 0.28–0.45 (38%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
- Zadorov – Jokiharju13:17
xG 0.17–0.72 (20%)attempts 8–18goals 0–1
- McAvoy – Lohrei12:22
xG 0.28–1.42 (16%)attempts 12–15goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).