Tue, Oct 14, 2025·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Nashville Predators 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 7
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 08 | 213 | 29 | 430 |
| TOR | 29 | 26 | 313 | 728 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:42TORJake McCabeAssists: Dakota Joshua, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 13:34TOROliver Ekman-LarssonAssists: William Nylander, Simon Benoit · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 3:21NSHMichael McCarronAssists: Brady Skjei, Nick Perbix · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 4:05NSHErik HaulaAssists: Ozzy Wiesblatt · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 8:49TORJohn TavaresAssists: William Nylander, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–3
- P2 16:24TORBobby McMannAssists: Nick Robertson, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 10:42TORAuston MatthewsGWGAssists: Matthew Knies, Easton Cowan · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–5
- P3 16:06NSHRoman JosiAssists: Adam Wilsby, Jonathan Marchessault · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–5
- P3 16:50TORAuston MatthewsENAssists: John Tavares, Matthew Knies · Wrist, 0.82 xG3–6
- P3 18:49NSHNick PerbixAssists: Adam Wilsby, Ozzy Wiesblatt · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–6
- P3 19:36TORWilliam NylanderENAssists: Matthew Knies, Jake McCabe · Wrist, 0.55 xG4–7
Penalties (6)
- P1 15:01TORNicolas Roy: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:40TORMatthew Knies: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:44NSHMichael McCarron: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:44TORBrandon Carlo: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:28NSHOzzy Wiesblatt: Interference2 min
- P3 11:42NSHAdam Wilsby: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Haula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestMcCarron – Smith – Wiesblatt7:41
xG 0.37–0.17 (68%)attempts 10–5goals 2–2
- Jost – Evangelista – Svechkov4:21
xG 0.25–0.20 (56%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Stamkos – O'Reilly – Forsberg6:34
xG 0.21–0.19 (54%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Forsberg – Jost5:15
xG 0.08–0.33 (19%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Skjei – Perbix15:20
xG 0.55–0.76 (42%)attempts 16–11goals 2–1
- Stastney – Barron12:19
xG 0.32–0.68 (32%)attempts 15–15goals 0–2
- Josi – Wilsby15:29
xG 0.36–0.79 (31%)attempts 17–16goals 1–2
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Nylander – Maccelli9:45
xG 1.01–0.38 (73%)attempts 11–9goals 2–1
- Domi – Robertson – McMann9:16
xG 0.58–0.20 (74%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Matthews – Knies – Cowan11:01
xG 0.54–0.19 (74%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Jarnkrok – Joshua – Roy6:35
xG 0.30–0.35 (46%)attempts 6–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Benoit13:46
xG 0.78–0.42 (65%)attempts 11–16goals 3–1
- Rielly – Carlo12:34
xG 0.78–0.46 (63%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
- Tanev – McCabe14:15
xG 0.64–0.41 (61%)attempts 14–16goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).