Tue, Oct 14, 2025·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Vegas Golden Knights 4, Calgary Flames 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 08 | 112 | 310 | 430 |
| CGY | 210 | 011 | 08 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:32CGYMikael BacklundAssists: MacKenzie Weegar · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 12:10CGYBlake ColemanUnassisted · Snap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 10:00VGKJack EichelAssists: Mark Stone · Backhand, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 4:11VGKKaedan KorczakAssists: Tomas Hertl, Mitch Marner · Snap, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 6:38VGKJack EichelGWGAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Jeremy Lauzon · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–2
- P3 19:53VGKTomas HertlENAssists: Mitch Marner, William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.81 xG4–2
Penalties (5)
- P2 5:37VGKKaedan Korczak: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:20CGYNazem Kadri: Interference2 min
- P2 16:48CGYKevin Bahl: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:02CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:02VGKColton Sissons: Elbowing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStone – Barbashev – Eichel11:16
xG 0.79–0.47 (62%)attempts 18–12goals 2–2
- Hertl – Marner – Dorofeyev13:52
xG 0.31–0.30 (50%)attempts 17–14goals 0–0
- Sissons – Kolesar – Reinhardt8:21
xG 0.14–0.19 (42%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Smith – Saad – Karlsson10:47
xG 0.24–0.48 (33%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore17:22
xG 0.61–0.48 (56%)attempts 19–14goals 0–1
- Lauzon – Korczak14:34
xG 0.61–0.50 (55%)attempts 15–13goals 2–1
- Hutton – Whitecloud12:10
xG 0.60–0.50 (55%)attempts 21–15goals 1–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Honzek10:29
xG 0.51–0.29 (64%)attempts 14–8goals 2–1
- Frost – Farabee – Sharangovich10:56
xG 0.42–0.39 (52%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Lomberg – Zary – Klapka8:29
xG 0.26–0.23 (53%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Kadri – Coronato – Gridin13:34
xG 0.29–0.58 (34%)attempts 13–18goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestAndersson – Bahl16:09
xG 1.18–0.43 (73%)attempts 27–21goals 0–1
- Hanley – Parekh11:25
xG 0.39–0.27 (59%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Weegar – Parekh2:51
xG 0.17–0.14 (55%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).