Tue, Oct 14, 2025·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Carolina Hurricanes 5, San Jose Sharks 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 014 | 319 | 210 | 543 |
| SJS | 08 | 19 | 00 | 117 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:24CARSean WalkerAssists: Sebastian Aho, Seth Jarvis · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 4:38SJSWilliam EklundAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 14:14CARWilliam CarrierGWGAssists: Alexander Nikishin, Jordan Martinook · Poke, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 18:39CAREric RobinsonAssists: Mike Reilly · Backhand, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 1:52CARShayne GostisbehereAssists: Logan Stankoven, Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–1
- P3 7:25CARJackson BlakeAssists: Jalen Chatfield, Logan Stankoven · Slap, 0.04 xG5–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:25CARK'Andre Miller: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:31CARShayne Gostisbehere: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:41CARWilliam Carrier: Boarding2 min
- P1 17:04SJSWill Smith: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:55SJSAdam Gaudette: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:09CARJackson Blake: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:23SJSSam Dickinson: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:23SJSSam Dickinson: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:23CARAlexander Nikishin: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:52CARSean Walker: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Celebrini won the faceoff against Aho
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestEhlers – Aho – Jarvis10:11
xG 0.70–0.22 (76%)attempts 19–5goals 1–1
- Staal – Martinook – Carrier8:56
xG 0.60–0.31 (66%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Robinson – Svechnikov4:09
xG 0.41–0.18 (69%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Hall – Jankowski – Robinson2:26
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Nikishin11:41
xG 1.25–0.27 (82%)attempts 20–7goals 2–0
- Reilly – Chatfield13:01
xG 0.93–0.42 (69%)attempts 25–7goals 2–1
- Walker – Miller13:17
xG 0.60–0.21 (74%)attempts 20–7goals 1–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Skinner – Wennberg – Smith7:23
xG 0.31–0.44 (41%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Kurashev – Dellandrea – Misa8:37
xG 0.00–0.39 (0%)attempts 3–14goals 0–2
- Reaves – Goodrow – Gaudette7:48
xG 0.18–0.74 (20%)attempts 3–13goals 0–1
- Toffoli – Eklund – Celebrini11:44
xG 0.22–0.86 (21%)attempts 4–23goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Leddy – Ferraro2:21
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Ferraro3:27
xG 0.06–0.15 (28%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Orlov – Ferraro8:52
xG 0.29–0.45 (39%)attempts 7–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).