Thu, Oct 16, 2025·UBS Arena, Elmont
Edmonton Oilers 2, New York Islanders 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 18 | 116 | 09 | 233 |
| NYI | 111 | 17 | 27 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:23NYIMathew BarzalUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 17:40EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Connor McDavid, David Tomasek · Snap, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 8:53EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Ty Emberson · Snap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 17:56NYIBo HorvatSHAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Ryan Pulock · Snap, 0.16 xG2–2
- P3 15:14NYIBo HorvatPPGWGAssists: Mathew Barzal, Matthew Schaefer · Snap, 0.16 xG2–3
- P3 19:51NYIBo HorvatENAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Emil Heineman · Wrist, 0.82 xG2–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:45NYIAdam Pelech: Tripping2 min
- P1 5:03EDMConnor McDavid: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:20NYIScott Mayfield: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:14EDMDavid Tomasek: Holding2 min
- P2 17:01NYIAlexander Romanov: Cross checking2 min
- P3 2:27EDMMattias Ekholm: Interference2 min
- P3 4:11NYIEmil Heineman: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:18EDMTroy Stecher: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:07EDMTrent Frederic: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Barzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestKapanen – Frederic – Podkolzin7:30
xG 0.42–0.10 (81%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl – Roslovic9:14
xG 0.56–0.38 (59%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Draisaitl – Mangiapane – McDavid3:26
xG 0.15–0.19 (44%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Mangiapane – McDavid – Tomasek6:31
xG 0.17–0.35 (33%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKulak – Emberson10:32
xG 0.66–0.30 (69%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Nurse – Stecher13:54
xG 0.46–0.45 (51%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Bouchard13:43
xG 0.87–1.11 (44%)attempts 18–19goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Duclair – Barzal13:08
xG 0.85–0.65 (57%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
- Drouin – Horvat – Heineman7:59
xG 0.13–0.11 (55%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Lee – Pageau – Shabanov8:01
xG 0.25–0.55 (31%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Cizikas – MacLean – Holmstrom6:05
xG 0.05–0.47 (10%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock11:46
xG 0.59–0.52 (53%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- DeAngelo – Romanov13:14
xG 0.79–0.83 (49%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Schaefer10:19
xG 0.26–0.45 (36%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).