Thu, Oct 16, 2025·Honda Center, Anaheim
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Anaheim Ducks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 111 | 112 | 29 | 432 |
| ANA | 08 | 110 | 06 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:54CARSeth JarvisAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere · Snap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 10:22CARSeth JarvisPPGWGAssists: Jackson Blake, Shayne Gostisbehere · Slap, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 11:32ANALeo CarlssonAssists: Alex Killorn, Drew Helleson · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 2:38CARAlexander NikishinAssists: Sebastian Aho, Shayne Gostisbehere · Snap, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 15:48CARSebastian AhoAssists: Seth Jarvis · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 1:07ANARadko Gudas: Interference2 min
- P1 10:41ANAMason McTavish: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 3:22CARMark Jankowski: Boarding2 min
- P2 8:35ANAJackson LaCombe: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00CARFrederik Andersen: Goalie leave crease2 min
- P2 0:00ANALukas Dostal: Goalie leave crease2 min
- P2 0:00CARK'Andre Miller: Roughing removing opponents helmet2 min
- P2 0:00ANAMason McTavish: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00CARLogan Stankoven: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:42CARSebastian Aho: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:36CARJackson Blake: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:00CARJalen Chatfield: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McTavish won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestEhlers – Aho – Jarvis8:32
xG 0.97–0.27 (78%)attempts 12–8goals 2–0
- Jankowski – Robinson – Svechnikov5:45
xG 0.45–0.17 (73%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Hall – Stankoven – Blake9:03
xG 0.57–0.44 (57%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Staal – Martinook – Carrier10:53
xG 0.44–0.52 (46%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Chatfield13:05
xG 1.34–0.61 (69%)attempts 20–14goals 1–0
- Gostisbehere – Nikishin11:41
xG 0.83–0.32 (72%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Walker – Miller14:31
xG 0.62–0.63 (50%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Kreider – Carlsson10:00
xG 0.73–0.43 (63%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Granlund – Vatrano – Terry6:51
xG 0.25–0.48 (34%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- McTavish – Gauthier – Sennecke12:37
xG 0.82–1.08 (43%)attempts 19–12goals 0–1
- Johnston – Poehling – Nesterenko6:08
xG 0.04–0.56 (7%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Mintyukov3:47
xG 0.44–0.28 (62%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Helleson – LaCombe4:31
xG 0.34–0.35 (49%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
- Gudas – LaCombe8:54
xG 0.30–0.72 (29%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).