Thu, Oct 16, 2025·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Los Angeles Kings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 08 | 28 | 210 | 426 |
| LAK | 211 | 011 | 010 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:24LAKWarren FoegeleAssists: Trevor Moore, Cody Ceci · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 9:04LAKKevin FialaAssists: Quinton Byfield, Joel Armia · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 6:37PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Bryan Rust, Erik Karlsson · Snap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 7:18PITConnor DewarAssists: Noel Acciari, Ryan Shea · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 6:50PITFilip HallanderSHGWGAssists: Rickard Rakell, Parker Wotherspoon · Snap, 0.02 xG3–2
- P3 19:29PITSidney CrosbyENAssists: Parker Wotherspoon, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.46 xG4–2
Penalties (4)
- P2 5:48LAKQuinton Byfield: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:11PITSidney Crosby: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:58PITSidney Crosby: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:19LAKAdrian Kempe: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Malkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- Acciari – Dewar – Lizotte9:08
xG 0.28–0.34 (45%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
- Novak – Hallander – Tomasino8:34
xG 0.21–0.37 (36%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Rakell11:31
xG 0.52–0.75 (41%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Malkin – Mantha – Brazeau10:54
xG 0.17–0.44 (27%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Wotherspoon14:34
xG 1.04–0.36 (74%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Letang – Shea14:58
xG 0.95–0.78 (55%)attempts 16–19goals 1–2
- Jones – Brunicke13:52
xG 0.22–0.89 (20%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestFoegele – Moore – Turcotte9:20
xG 0.69–0.63 (52%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Laferriere – Malott – Helenius5:15
xG 0.01–0.02 (28%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Danault – Kempe – Kuzmenko11:01
xG 0.55–0.59 (48%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Armia – Fiala – Byfield10:36
xG 0.68–0.87 (44%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Dumoulin16:03
xG 0.87–0.41 (68%)attempts 18–6goals 1–0
- Ceci – Anderson16:19
xG 0.73–0.86 (46%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Edmundson – Clarke14:24
xG 0.51–1.04 (33%)attempts 14–20goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).