Fri, Oct 17, 2025·Capital One Arena, Washington
Minnesota Wild 1, Washington Capitals 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 03 | 14 | 07 | 114 |
| WSH | 113 | 111 | 321 | 545 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:52WSHDylan StromeAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Martin Fehérváry · Deflected, 0.18 xG0–1
- P2 16:47MINMarcus JohanssonAssists: Matt Boldy, Jake Middleton · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 17:18WSHAliaksei ProtasGWGAssists: Tom Wilson, Rasmus Sandin · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 1:19WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Dylan Strome · Snap, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 11:32WSHDylan StromeAssists: Anthony Beauvillier, Martin Fehérváry · Snap, 0.21 xG1–4
- P3 18:03WSHTom WilsonPPAssists: John Carlson, Dylan Strome · Deflected, 0.09 xG1–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:51WSHConnor McMichael: Holding2 min
- P2 0:53MINJake Middleton: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 10:05MINMarcus Foligno: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:23MINZeev Buium: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:50WSHConnor McMichael: Interference2 min
- P3 17:45MINMatt Boldy: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Hartman
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Tarasenko – Boldy – Rossi3:43
xG 0.24–0.20 (55%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Johansson – Eriksson Ek – Kaprizov4:07
xG 0.10–0.11 (49%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Eriksson Ek – Kaprizov – Boldy2:18
xG 0.10–0.14 (41%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Hinostroza – Ohgren – Yurov6:34
xG 0.33–0.43 (43%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Brodin2:02
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Faber – Buium4:35
xG 0.27–0.47 (37%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Spurgeon – Middleton10:30
xG 0.20–0.48 (30%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Strome – Beauvillier8:08
xG 1.15–0.02 (98%)attempts 15–2goals 3–0
- Wilson – McMichael – Protas7:20
xG 0.43–0.00 (99%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Milano – Lapierre – Leonard8:15
xG 0.63–0.42 (60%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Dowd – Duhaime – Sourdif10:07
xG 0.51–0.37 (58%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Fehérváry8:22
xG 1.35–0.03 (97%)attempts 15–4goals 1–0
- Roy – Fehérváry3:54
xG 0.62–0.02 (97%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Carlson – Chychrun4:51
xG 0.56–0.38 (59%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).