Sat, Oct 18, 2025·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 26 | 03 | 015 | 224 |
| CBJ | 111 | 114 | 16 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:58CBJKent JohnsonAssists: Boone Jenner, Adam Fantilli · Backhand, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 12:42TBLRyan McDonaghAssists: Pontus Holmberg, Erik Cernak · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 16:22TBLAnthony CirelliPPAssists: Jake Guentzel, Victor Hedman · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 13:59CBJDamon SeversonAssists: Mathieu Olivier, Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 1:15CBJKirill MarchenkoGWGAssists: Dmitri Voronkov, Zach Werenski · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 1:01TBLJ.J. Moser: Roughing2 min
- P1 1:01CBJDmitri Voronkov: Roughing2 min
- P1 1:01CBJBoone Jenner: Roughing2 min
- P1 3:10CBJMathieu Olivier: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:10TBLCurtis Douglas: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:13TBLConor Geekie: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 16:06CBJCole Sillinger: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:46CBJBoone Jenner: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:49TBLEmil Lilleberg: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:09TBLJake Guentzel: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:09CBJAdam Fantilli: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:00TBLBrandon Hagel: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 0:00CBJMathieu Olivier: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against Fantilli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPoint – Cirelli – Hagel4:05
xG 0.15–0.07 (67%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Holmberg – Chaffee – Geekie2:17
xG 0.05–0.01 (89%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Gourde – Guentzel – Bjorkstrand2:25
xG 0.02–0.05 (33%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Guentzel – Point – Hagel6:45
xG 0.36–0.39 (48%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- McDonagh – Raddysh3:05
xG 0.01–0.15 (4%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Hedman – Moser15:18
xG 0.51–0.80 (39%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Cernak12:15
xG 0.26–0.57 (31%)attempts 15–14goals 1–3
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestCoyle – Olivier – Sillinger11:09
xG 0.59–0.22 (73%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Jenner – Johnson – Fantilli10:21
xG 0.56–0.24 (70%)attempts 16–7goals 1–1
- Monahan – Marchenko – Voronkov10:51
xG 0.38–0.24 (61%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Aston-Reese – Lundeström – Chinakhov5:00
xG 0.16–0.49 (25%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Provorov14:37
xG 0.71–0.43 (62%)attempts 18–12goals 1–0
- Werenski – Mateychuk17:06
xG 0.66–0.48 (58%)attempts 18–19goals 1–0
- Fabbro – Christiansen9:44
xG 0.39–0.25 (61%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).