Sat, Oct 18, 2025·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Calgary Flames 1, Vegas Golden Knights 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 113 | 04 | 010 | 127 |
| VGK | 39 | 210 | 19 | 628 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:46VGKMitch MarnerAssists: Ivan Barbashev · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 3:42CGYJonathan HuberdeauPPAssists: Nazem Kadri, MacKenzie Weegar · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–1
- P1 5:39VGKTomas HertlPPGWGAssists: Mark Stone, Jack Eichel · Snap, 0.22 xG1–2
- P1 15:03VGKMark StoneAssists: Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–3
- P2 3:57VGKIvan BarbashevAssists: Kaedan Korczak, Jeremy Lauzon · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–4
- P2 19:06VGKMitch MarnerPPAssists: Mark Stone, Jack Eichel · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–5
- P3 2:37VGKMark StonePPAssists: Tomas Hertl, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–6
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:22VGKColton Sissons: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 2:22CGYRyan Lomberg: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 3:18VGKBrayden McNabb: Interference2 min
- P1 4:48CGYRasmus Andersson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 8:25CGYAdam Klapka: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:25VGKJeremy Lauzon: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:39VGKJeremy Lauzon: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:20VGKKeegan Kolesar: Interference2 min
- P2 18:28CGYJoel Hanley: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 2:21CGYNazem Kadri: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Huberdeau – Farabee12:15
xG 0.78–0.41 (65%)attempts 19–6goals 0–0
- Frost – Sharangovich – Honzek4:24
xG 0.24–0.17 (59%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Frost – Sharangovich – Coronato6:23
xG 0.11–0.18 (38%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Backlund – Coleman – Honzek6:14
xG 0.03–0.21 (14%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestAndersson – Bean7:39
xG 0.47–0.07 (87%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Weegar – Hanley15:17
xG 0.65–0.31 (68%)attempts 19–6goals 0–1
- Weegar – Bean2:59
xG 0.03–0.03 (51%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Holtz11:39
xG 0.67–0.39 (64%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- Stone – Barbashev – Eichel8:15
xG 0.45–0.22 (67%)attempts 8–8goals 2–0
- Hertl – Marner – Dorofeyev9:00
xG 0.24–0.04 (84%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Saad – Sissons – Kolesar8:31
xG 0.06–0.49 (11%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHutton – Whitecloud13:49
xG 1.09–0.57 (66%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Lauzon – Korczak14:25
xG 0.73–0.33 (69%)attempts 14–9goals 2–0
- McNabb – Theodore18:57
xG 0.38–0.31 (55%)attempts 15–26goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).