Sun, Oct 19, 2025·Capital One Arena, Washington
Vancouver Canucks 4, Washington Capitals 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 312 | 17 | 05 | 424 |
| WSH | 07 | 112 | 212 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:59VANElias PetterssonAssists: Conor Garland · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 17:11VANTyler MyersUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P1 17:52VANKiefer SherwoodPPAssists: Conor Garland, Quinn Hughes · Snap, 0.07 xG3–0
- P2 4:54VANTeddy BluegerGWGAssists: Evander Kane, Tyler Myers · Snap, 0.16 xG4–0
- P2 13:42WSHRyan LeonardPPAssists: Tom Wilson, Dylan Strome · Snap, 0.15 xG4–1
- P3 9:01WSHJakob ChychrunAssists: Hendrix Lapierre, Rasmus Sandin · Snap, 0.16 xG4–2
- P3 17:46WSHJohn CarlsonAssists: Dylan Strome, Tom Wilson · Snap, 0.04 xG4–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 10:23VANFilip Chytil: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:11WSHAlex Ovechkin: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min · PPG
- P1 19:36WSHDylan Strome: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:13WSHBrandon Duhaime: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:13VANVictor Mancini: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:56VANEvander Kane: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:13VANArshdeep Bains: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00WSHNic Dowd: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 5:45VANFilip Hronek: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:35WSHJustin Sourdif: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Blueger
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- Kane – Chytil – Lekkerimäki3:18
xG 0.14–0.10 (58%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Kane – Blueger – Sherwood2:41
xG 0.16–0.18 (47%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Blueger – Sherwood – O'Connor8:43
xG 0.12–0.21 (36%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Bains – Sasson7:48
xG 0.15–0.48 (24%)attempts 3–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Hughes4:48
xG 0.71–0.36 (66%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
- Myers – Pettersson6:48
xG 0.24–0.22 (52%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
- Pettersson – Mancini2:21
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilson – McMichael – Lapierre3:21
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Dowd – Beauvillier – Duhaime2:30
xG 0.21–0.06 (79%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Strome – Beauvillier6:04
xG 0.35–0.20 (64%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Protas – Sourdif – Leonard4:37
xG 0.25–0.10 (71%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Chychrun7:08
xG 0.49–0.02 (96%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Roy – Sandin8:47
xG 0.56–0.24 (70%)attempts 21–4goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Fehérváry2:27
xG 0.25–0.06 (81%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).