Mon, Oct 20, 2025·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Winnipeg Jets 2, Calgary Flames 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 07 | 014 | 26 | 227 |
| CGY | 09 | 112 | 012 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 13:22CGYRasmus AnderssonAssists: Adam Klapka, Ryan Lomberg · Slap, 0.00 xG0–1
- P3 2:41WPGJonathan ToewsPPAssists: Neal Pionk, Nino Niederreiter · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–1
- P3 15:06WPGMark ScheifeleGWGAssists: Kyle Connor, Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:23WPGGabriel Vilardi: High sticking2 min
- P1 4:06CGYConnor Zary: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 13:24WPGTanner Pearson: Holding2 min
- P1 18:50WPGLogan Stanley: Interference2 min
- P2 2:51WPGNino Niederreiter: Interference2 min
- P2 5:57CGYKevin Bahl: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:59CGYConnor Zary: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 15:02CGYConnor Zary: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 1:07CGYNazem Kadri: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:34WPGJonathan Toews: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Niederreiter – Namestnikov – Iafallo3:39
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Vilardi9:52
xG 0.25–0.31 (45%)attempts 4–19goals 1–0
- Barron – Koepke – Lambert2:02
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Iafallo – Lambert3:43
xG 0.22–0.34 (39%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey9:56
xG 0.17–0.07 (72%)attempts 4–10goals 1–0
- Schenn – Fleury9:43
xG 0.11–0.36 (23%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Stanley – Pionk11:36
xG 0.23–0.79 (22%)attempts 9–23goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Huberdeau – Farabee8:34
xG 0.56–0.00 (100%)attempts 15–2goals 0–0
- Frost – Zary – Honzek7:09
xG 0.32–0.02 (93%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Kirkland – Lomberg – Klapka6:39
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Coronato8:24
xG 0.15–0.38 (28%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Bean13:03
xG 0.93–0.39 (71%)attempts 25–8goals 0–1
- Hanley – Parekh8:33
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Andersson – Bahl11:27
xG 0.25–0.17 (60%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).