Tue, Oct 21, 2025·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
New Jersey Devils 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 09 | 416 | 110 | 535 |
| TOR | 17 | 110 | 08 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:36TORJohn TavaresAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, William Nylander · Bat, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 1:27NJDJack HughesAssists: Jesper Bratt, Brett Pesce · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 3:20NJDCody GlassPPAssists: Timo Meier, Luke Hughes · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P2 4:54NJDBrenden DillonGWGAssists: Luke Glendening, Arseny Gritsyuk · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 7:03TORMatias MaccelliAssists: William Nylander, John Tavares · Snap, 0.16 xG3–2
- P2 16:17NJDJack HughesAssists: Jesper Bratt, Simon Nemec · Slap, 0.13 xG4–2
- P3 19:30NJDJack HughesENAssists: Jesper Bratt · Wrist, 0.46 xG5–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:28NJDDawson Mercer: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:54NJDCody Glass: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:54TORMax Domi: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:27TORJohn Tavares: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min · PPG
- P3 7:24TORAuston Matthews: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:44NJDJonas Siegenthaler: Interference2 min
- P3 19:43TORSimon Benoit: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:43NJDBrian Halonen: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestMeier – Hischier – Mercer10:16
xG 0.61–0.04 (93%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Palat – Bratt – Hughes7:39
xG 0.34–0.47 (42%)attempts 9–13goals 2–0
- Glendening – Cotter – Halonen5:44
xG 0.01–0.36 (3%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Brown – Glass – Gritsyuk7:45
xG 0.31–0.69 (31%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPesce – Hughes15:53
xG 1.07–0.32 (77%)attempts 21–9goals 1–0
- Hamilton – Siegenthaler15:21
xG 0.31–0.28 (52%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Dillon – Nemec12:17
xG 0.35–1.21 (22%)attempts 8–11goals 2–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Maccelli – McMann2:31
xG 0.62–0.05 (93%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Tavares – Nylander – Maccelli7:36
xG 0.55–0.16 (77%)attempts 9–5goals 2–0
- Nylander – Matthews – Knies3:46
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Joshua – Roy – McMann7:18
xG 0.25–0.10 (72%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Benoit9:01
xG 0.82–0.14 (86%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Rielly8:43
xG 0.99–0.42 (70%)attempts 18–9goals 2–1
- McCabe – Benoit2:18
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).