Thu, Oct 23, 2025·Benchmark International Arena, Tampa
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 17 | 16 | 112 | 325 |
| TBL | 011 | 211 | 09 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:41CHIFrank NazarPPAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Teuvo Teravainen · Snap, 0.26 xG1–0
- P2 6:57TBLJake GuentzelAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Nikita Kucherov · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 10:16CHIRyan DonatoAssists: Lukas Reichel · Snap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 19:18TBLRyan McDonaghAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point · Snap, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 19:06CHIRyan DonatoGWGAssists: Frank Nazar, Teuvo Teravainen · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 10:26TBLEmil Lilleberg: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 15:10CHINick Foligno: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 15:46TBLJake Guentzel: Holding2 min
- P1 16:43CHIRyan Donato: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 2:36TBLDarren Raddysh: Holding2 min
- P3 4:00TBLYanni Gourde: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 8:21CHILandon Slaggert: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:48TBLEmil Lilleberg: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:38CHISam Rinzel: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against Foligno
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Slaggert – Dach8:52
xG 0.48–0.16 (75%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Reichel – Bedard7:35
xG 0.21–0.39 (35%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
- Teravainen – Mikheyev – Nazar9:24
xG 0.38–1.26 (23%)attempts 8–23goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – Levshunov5:03
xG 0.27–0.10 (73%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Murphy – Vlasic4:20
xG 0.05–0.03 (61%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Murphy – Kaiser5:08
xG 0.15–0.13 (53%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestGourde – Bjorkstrand – Holmberg8:52
xG 0.66–0.22 (75%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Douglas – Chaffee – James6:31
xG 0.75–0.42 (64%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Cirelli – Hagel – Goncalves3:56
xG 0.20–0.09 (69%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Guentzel – Point8:01
xG 0.37–0.26 (59%)attempts 8–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Moser13:09
xG 1.01–0.70 (59%)attempts 23–13goals 0–1
- McDonagh – Cernak14:47
xG 0.83–0.53 (61%)attempts 19–12goals 2–1
- Moser – Lilleberg2:08
xG 0.26–0.02 (92%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).