Sat, Oct 25, 2025·Grand Casino Arena, St. Paul
Utah Mammoth 6, Minnesota Wild 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Mammoth win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 315 | 011 | 315 | 641 |
| MIN | 16 | 19 | 020 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:56UTALogan CooleyAssists: John Marino · Bat, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 3:29UTALogan CooleyPPAssists: Dylan Guenther, Mikhail Sergachev · Wrist, 0.91 xG2–0
- P1 4:58UTANick SchmaltzGWGAssists: Nate Schmidt, John Marino · Tip-in, 0.04 xG3–0
- P1 15:39MINMarcus JohanssonAssists: Zeev Buium, Kirill Kaprizov · Snap, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 15:43MINMarcus JohanssonPPAssists: Vinnie Hinostroza, Marco Rossi · Snap, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 13:37UTAJJ PeterkaAssists: Logan Cooley, Mikhail Sergachev · Snap, 0.11 xG4–2
- P3 15:13UTANick SchmaltzUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG5–2
- P3 19:54UTAJohn MarinoENAssists: Ian Cole · Wrist, 0.32 xG6–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:46MINYakov Trenin: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 11:47UTAMikhail Sergachev: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:47MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:51UTAIan Cole: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:26UTAJack McBain: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:54UTABarrett Hayton: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:48UTAIan Cole: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rossi won the faceoff against Cooley
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Utah Mammoth
Forward lines
- bestCrouse – Carcone – McBain9:03
xG 1.23–0.41 (75%)attempts 23–13goals 0–1
- Schmaltz – Keller – Hayton11:17
xG 0.86–0.18 (83%)attempts 12–7goals 2–0
- O'Brien – Stenlund – Tanev7:44
xG 0.90–0.23 (79%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Peterka – Guenther – Cooley9:26
xG 0.47–0.25 (65%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Marino10:07
xG 1.18–0.51 (70%)attempts 20–8goals 2–0
- Cole – Simashev2:16
xG 0.60–0.05 (93%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Sergachev5:36
xG 0.58–0.11 (84%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Johansson – Kaprizov – Rossi10:23
xG 0.27–0.56 (32%)attempts 7–11goals 1–1
- Eriksson Ek – Boldy – Yurov9:35
xG 0.26–0.67 (28%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Foligno – Tarasenko – Hartman7:46
xG 0.39–0.83 (32%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
- Hinostroza – Trenin – Jones6:29
xG 0.07–0.77 (8%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Middleton – Jiricek13:20
xG 1.16–1.42 (45%)attempts 26–17goals 0–1
- Spurgeon – Buium14:30
xG 0.13–0.63 (17%)attempts 8–15goals 1–1
- Brodin – Faber19:09
xG 0.61–1.37 (31%)attempts 14–22goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it UTA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Mammoth win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − UTA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).