Tue, Oct 28, 2025·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Nashville Predators 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 93% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 113 | 113 | 36 | 532 |
| NSH | 08 | 03 | 29 | 220 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:31TBLZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Pontus Holmberg, Yanni Gourde · Snap, 0.19 xG1–0
- P2 15:37TBLBrandon HagelAssists: Anthony Cirelli · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–0
- P3 5:05NSHLuke EvangelistaPPAssists: Erik Haula, Brady Skjei · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P3 7:58TBLCharle-Edouard D'AstousGWGAssists: Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 17:54NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Luke Evangelista, Erik Haula · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 19:07TBLNikita KucherovENAssists: Brandon Hagel, Anthony Cirelli · Wrist, 0.79 xG4–2
- P3 19:33TBLZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Pontus Holmberg, Erik Cernak · Wrist, 0.16 xG5–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:32TBLBrayden Point: Tripping2 min
- P1 3:49NSHAdam Wilsby: Interference2 min
- P1 17:28NSHErik Haula: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:29NSHSpencer Stastney: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:15NSHLuke Evangelista: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 3:00TBLCharle-Edouard D'Astous: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:00NSHMichael Bunting: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:45TBLDominic James: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 9:50TBLErik Cernak: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 15:47NSHFilip Forsberg: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:47TBLJ.J. Moser: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against McCarron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestGourde – Girgensons – Holmberg9:13
xG 0.83–0.04 (96%)attempts 9–4goals 2–0
- Kucherov – Guentzel – Point8:49
xG 0.34–0.18 (66%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Bjorkstrand – Goncalves – James5:13
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Cirelli – Hagel – Douglas3:13
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestD'Astous – Lilleberg12:35
xG 0.65–0.04 (95%)attempts 13–3goals 2–0
- McDonagh – Cernak13:08
xG 0.58–0.27 (68%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Hedman – Moser11:58
xG 0.33–0.07 (82%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Forsberg – Evangelista2:25
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Haula – Bunting – Evangelista4:04
xG 0.10–0.05 (66%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- McCarron – Smith – Wiesblatt6:32
xG 0.06–0.15 (29%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Marchessault – Jost4:05
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Skjei – Barron2:00
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Skjei – Perbix11:31
xG 0.09–0.23 (28%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Hague – Perbix6:08
xG 0.04–0.23 (13%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 93% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).