Tue, Oct 28, 2025·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Detroit Red Wings 5, St. Louis Blues 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 27 | 27 | 16 | 520 |
| STL | 16 | 012 | 14 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:47STLBrayden SchennAssists: Colton Parayko, Philip Broberg · Snap, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 12:01DETBen ChiarotAssists: Mason Appleton, Alex DeBrincat · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P1 19:24DETAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: Moritz Seider, Dylan Larkin · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 11:14DETDylan LarkinGWGAssists: Simon Edvinsson, Lucas Raymond · Tip-in, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 12:56DETElmer SoderblomAssists: Michael Rasmussen, James van Riemsdyk · Snap, 0.23 xG4–1
- P3 15:36STLJordan KyrouAssists: Pius Suter, Philip Broberg · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–2
- P3 18:53DETDylan LarkinENAssists: Lucas Raymond · Wrist, 0.37 xG5–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:35DETTravis Hamonic: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:35STLBrayden Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:09STLDylan Holloway: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 8:13STLNathan Walker: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:59DETBen Chiarot: Holding2 min
- P2 18:18DETAndrew Copp: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Rasmussen – Soderblom10:27
xG 0.77–0.10 (89%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Larkin – Raymond – Finnie10:50
xG 0.56–0.29 (66%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- Appleton – DeBrincat – Kasper10:34
xG 0.41–0.48 (46%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Copp – Compher – Berggren10:27
xG 0.00–0.37 (0%)attempts 2–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeider – Edvinsson16:25
xG 1.23–0.27 (82%)attempts 20–10goals 2–1
- Chiarot – Sandin-Pellikka13:56
xG 0.36–0.37 (50%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Johansson – Edvinsson2:40
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestKyrou – Suter – Holloway11:22
xG 0.60–0.31 (66%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Schenn – Buchnevich – Snuggerud9:21
xG 0.21–0.29 (42%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Bjugstad – Sundqvist – Texier9:11
xG 0.24–0.54 (30%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Walker – Joseph – Toropchenko8:58
xG 0.07–0.40 (14%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Parayko – Broberg16:00
xG 0.39–0.38 (51%)attempts 10–15goals 1–1
- Faulk – Fowler14:49
xG 0.59–0.71 (45%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Tucker – Mailloux10:51
xG 0.04–0.37 (9%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).