Fri, Oct 31, 2025·Capital One Arena, Washington
New York Islanders 3, Washington Capitals 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 06 | 110 | 27 | 323 |
| WSH | 013 | 16 | 04 | 123 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:48WSHTom WilsonAssists: Jakob Chychrun, Matt Roy · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 14:58NYIJean-Gabriel PageauSHAssists: Simon Holmstrom · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 4:29NYIBo HorvatGWGAssists: Emil Heineman, Ryan Pulock · Snap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 18:44NYIMathew BarzalENAssists: Adam Pelech · Snap, 0.46 xG3–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:34NYICasey Cizikas: Holding2 min
- P2 6:55WSHHendrix Lapierre: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:10WSHBrandon Duhaime: Holding2 min
- P2 14:13NYICalum Ritchie: Interference2 min
- P2 14:58WSHAlex Ovechkin: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 17:50NYICalum Ritchie: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:23WSHJakob Chychrun: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 6:16NYIAnders Lee: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:02WSHNic Dowd: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubois won the faceoff against Barzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Drouin – Ritchie4:51
xG 0.48–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Horvat – Barzal – Heineman2:40
xG 0.46–0.10 (82%)attempts 4–2goals 1–1
- Lee – Pageau – Holmstrom8:45
xG 0.18–0.09 (66%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Cizikas – Duclair – MacLean6:35
xG 0.21–0.14 (59%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock12:19
xG 0.48–0.09 (85%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Mayfield – Schaefer8:43
xG 0.29–0.45 (39%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Mayfield – Romanov4:46
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestMilano – Beauvillier – Lapierre4:30
xG 0.52–0.21 (72%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Dowd – Duhaime – Sourdif7:57
xG 0.41–0.36 (53%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Wilson – Dubois – Protas4:21
xG 0.06–0.05 (52%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – McMichael – Leonard4:03
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Chisholm8:01
xG 0.57–0.31 (65%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Carlson – Fehérváry12:12
xG 0.34–0.15 (70%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Roy – Fehérváry2:16
xG 0.03–0.17 (17%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).