Tue, Nov 4, 2025·Ball Arena, Denver
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Colorado Avalanche 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 19 | 07 | 18 | 224 |
| COL | 110 | 214 | 09 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:37TBLNikita KucherovUnassisted · Wrap-around, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 13:51COLVictor OlofssonPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Martin Necas · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 4:08COLVictor OlofssonAssists: Jack Drury, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 5:21COLRoss ColtonGWGAssists: Sam Malinski, Brock Nelson · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 3:32TBLBrayden PointAssists: Charle-Edouard D'Astous, Victor Hedman · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:43TBLCharle-Edouard D'Astous: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:43COLGabriel Landeskog: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:47TBLPontus Holmberg: Interference2 min
- P1 13:34TBLGage Goncalves: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 17:34COLVictor Olofsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:21COLJosh Manson: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:59TBLVictor Hedman: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:21COLBrock Nelson: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:26TBLZemgus Girgensons: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Drury won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Guentzel – Cirelli2:04
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Guentzel – Cirelli – Hagel2:31
xG 0.18–0.10 (64%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Bjorkstrand – Goncalves – James7:59
xG 0.24–0.25 (49%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Gourde – Girgensons – Holmberg11:22
xG 0.39–0.44 (47%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- D'Astous – Moser2:06
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- D'Astous – Crozier4:51
xG 0.15–0.18 (46%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- D'Astous – Lilleberg3:31
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestNelson – Nichushkin – Colton9:16
xG 0.85–0.07 (92%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- Landeskog – Olofsson – Drury6:36
xG 0.35–0.15 (70%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Necas13:08
xG 0.61–0.65 (48%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
- Kelly – Bardakov – Nielsen4:08
xG 0.00–0.05 (8%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Ahcan2:56
xG 0.53–0.12 (81%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Manson – Toews3:00
xG 0.37–0.05 (88%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Burns – Manson7:26
xG 0.26–0.01 (95%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).