Thu, Nov 6, 2025·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Washington Capitals 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 07 | 315 | 08 | 330 |
| PIT | 216 | 17 | 28 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:22PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Ben Kindel, Bryan Rust · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 11:32PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Bryan Rust, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 2:08PITAnthony ManthaAssists: Tommy Novak, Blake Lizotte · Backhand, 0.17 xG0–3
- P2 9:41WSHDylan StromeAssists: Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 14:55WSHRasmus SandinAssists: Dylan Strome, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
- P2 19:55WSHTom WilsonAssists: Dylan Strome, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–3
- P3 11:16PITBryan RustPPGWGAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Ben Kindel · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–4
- P3 17:56PITConnor DewarENAssists: Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.42 xG3–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:05WSHConnor McMichael: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 10:33WSHSonny Milano: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:54PITBlake Lizotte: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:07WSHTrevor van Riemsdyk: Interference2 min
- P2 2:23WSHTrevor van Riemsdyk: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:43PITConnor Clifton: Interference2 min
- P3 8:39PITBen Kindel: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 9:24WSHDylan Strome: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against McMichael
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Strome – Beauvillier12:16
xG 1.39–0.35 (80%)attempts 23–9goals 2–0
- Wilson – McMichael – Protas7:05
xG 0.27–0.28 (49%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Dowd – Duhaime – Sourdif4:02
xG 0.05–0.09 (37%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Milano – Lapierre – Leonard6:09
xG 0.08–0.14 (37%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Chychrun3:13
xG 0.62–0.03 (96%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0
- Carlson – Fehérváry8:46
xG 0.68–0.40 (63%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- van Riemsdyk – Sandin7:32
xG 0.46–0.27 (63%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- Heinen – Dewar – Lizotte2:40
xG 0.16–0.16 (50%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Heinen – Tomasino – Koivunen4:48
xG 0.00–0.12 (4%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Koppanen – Dewar – Lizotte5:35
xG 0.46–0.58 (45%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Malkin – Mantha – Novak7:45
xG 0.04–0.47 (8%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClifton – Graves13:49
xG 0.90–0.52 (64%)attempts 20–10goals 1–1
- Karlsson – Wotherspoon12:32
xG 0.46–0.37 (55%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Letang – Shea14:06
xG 0.55–1.50 (27%)attempts 15–27goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).