Thu, Nov 6, 2025·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Tampa Bay Lightning 6, Vegas Golden Knights 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 03 | 215 | 49 | 627 |
| VGK | 215 | 04 | 113 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:25VGKIvan BarbashevAssists: Noah Hanifin, Mitch Marner · Backhand, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 15:53VGKIvan BarbashevAssists: Mitch Marner, Jack Eichel · Snap, 0.18 xG0–2
- P2 0:36TBLGage GoncalvesAssists: Dominic James · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 3:28TBLDominic JamesAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, J.J. Moser · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–2
- P3 2:47TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Jake Guentzel · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 3:37VGKMitch MarnerAssists: Jack Eichel, Ivan Barbashev · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–3
- P3 4:12TBLBrandon HagelGWGAssists: Dominic James · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–3
- P3 14:13TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Brandon Hagel · Slap, 0.06 xG5–3
- P3 19:13TBLBrandon HagelENAssists: Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.80 xG6–3
Penalties (6)
- P2 5:37VGKIvan Barbashev: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:37VGKKaedan Korczak: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:48VGKIvan Barbashev: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 4:56TBLAndrei Vasilevskiy: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 12:38VGKJeremy Lauzon: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 15:15TBLGage Goncalves: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestBjorkstrand – Goncalves – James8:49
xG 0.76–0.04 (95%)attempts 12–4goals 2–0
- Gourde – Girgensons – Holmberg10:21
xG 0.44–0.37 (54%)attempts 8–7goals 0–2
- Kucherov – Point – Hagel2:56
xG 0.23–0.18 (56%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Guentzel – Point7:17
xG 0.10–0.70 (12%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Cernak12:34
xG 1.05–0.74 (59%)attempts 16–19goals 1–1
- D'Astous – Lilleberg7:18
xG 0.21–0.18 (54%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Hedman – Moser11:36
xG 0.51–1.17 (30%)attempts 14–18goals 0–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Howden10:24
xG 0.93–0.43 (68%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Saad – Hertl – Dorofeyev11:33
xG 0.30–0.33 (48%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Sissons – Kolesar – Reinhardt5:50
xG 0.33–0.59 (36%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
- Barbashev – Eichel – Marner11:09
xG 0.68–1.03 (40%)attempts 19–16goals 3–1
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Korczak2:48
xG 0.81–0.14 (85%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Lauzon – Korczak11:28
xG 0.60–0.75 (45%)attempts 8–14goals 1–1
- McNabb – Theodore13:08
xG 0.67–0.85 (44%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).