Sat, Nov 8, 2025·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Seattle Kraken 4, St. Louis Blues 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 09 | 215 | 15 | 11 | 430 |
| STL | 29 | 05 | 15 | 00 | 319 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:30STLDylan HollowayUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 9:40STLDalibor DvorskyPPAssists: Cam Fowler, Pavel Buchnevich · Snap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 8:28SEARyker EvansAssists: Eeli Tolvanen, Tye Kartye · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 15:25SEAEeli TolvanenPPAssists: Vince Dunn, Jordan Eberle · Snap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 5:10STLJordan KyrouAssists: Philip Broberg, Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–3
- P3 19:58SEAChandler StephensonAssists: Matty Beniers, Brandon Montour · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
- OT 1:57SEAShane WrightGWGAssists: Eeli Tolvanen, Ryker Evans · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:13STLJimmy Snuggerud: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:12SEAMason Marchment: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 15:36SEAVince Dunn: Interference2 min
- P2 14:29STLDalibor Dvorsky: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:47STLTyler Tucker: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beniers won the faceoff against Suter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestTolvanen – Kartye – Meyers7:44
xG 0.47–0.03 (94%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Eberle – Stephenson – Catton3:45
xG 0.34–0.09 (79%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Winterton – Wright – Catton4:11
xG 0.06–0.04 (60%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Schwartz – Kakko – Beniers10:44
xG 0.35–0.40 (47%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Dunn14:16
xG 0.48–0.15 (76%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Montour – Evans2:07
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Oleksiak – Evans11:17
xG 0.46–0.60 (43%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Kyrou – Thomas9:01
xG 0.73–0.24 (75%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Kyrou – Suter – Holloway2:10
xG 0.20–0.01 (97%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Suter – Holloway9:04
xG 0.34–0.23 (59%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Walker – Joseph9:23
xG 0.19–0.23 (44%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestParayko – Broberg17:06
xG 1.13–0.32 (78%)attempts 15–18goals 2–0
- Tucker – Kessel9:38
xG 0.24–0.20 (54%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Faulk – Fowler17:57
xG 0.44–0.86 (34%)attempts 14–28goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).