Sat, Nov 8, 2025·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Colorado Avalanche 9, Edmonton Oilers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 29 | 412 | 313 | 934 |
| EDM | 06 | 110 | 08 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:29COLCale MakarAssists: Devon Toews, Nathan MacKinnon · Snap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 14:35COLCale MakarGWGAssists: Devon Toews, Nathan MacKinnon · Snap, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 2:38COLGavin BrindleyAssists: Sam Malinski, Zakhar Bardakov · Backhand, 0.07 xG3–0
- P2 4:45COLJack DruryAssists: Brent Burns, Victor Olofsson · Tip-in, 0.06 xG4–0
- P2 9:34COLParker KellyAssists: Gavin Brindley, Zakhar Bardakov · Backhand, 0.10 xG5–0
- P2 11:30EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.10 xG5–1
- P2 14:38COLParker KellySHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.13 xG6–1
- P3 0:24COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Artturi Lehkonen, Devon Toews · Snap, 0.11 xG7–1
- P3 5:02COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Ross Colton · Snap, 0.05 xG8–1
- P3 14:28COLJack DruryAssists: Ross Colton, Parker Kelly · Snap, 0.13 xG9–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:17COLMartin Necas: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:43EDMDarnell Nurse: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:39COLGavin Brindley: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:09EDMJack Roslovic: Interference2 min
- P1 16:45EDMConnor McDavid: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:09EDMJake Walman: Cross checking2 min
- P2 11:23COLJosh Manson: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:45EDMVasily Podkolzin: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:31COLGabriel Landeskog: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:55COLNathan MacKinnon: Interference2 min
- P3 10:13EDMJake Walman: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:13EDMJake Walman: Abuse of officials2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKelly – Bardakov – Brindley4:56
xG 0.32–0.01 (96%)attempts 9–2goals 2–0
- Landeskog – Olofsson – Drury9:36
xG 0.33–0.10 (77%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Necas10:00
xG 0.67–0.53 (56%)attempts 8–17goals 3–0
- Nelson – Nichushkin – Colton7:58
xG 0.30–0.81 (27%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAhcan – Malinski7:37
xG 0.68–0.05 (93%)attempts 12–2goals 3–0
- Manson – Malinski2:17
xG 0.05–0.01 (79%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Burns – Ahcan2:51
xG 0.06–0.03 (67%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Howard – Savoie – Tomasek7:07
xG 0.16–0.13 (56%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Draisaitl – McDavid – Roslovic11:09
xG 1.04–1.04 (50%)attempts 21–10goals 0–2
- Henrique – Frederic – Philp3:39
xG 0.12–0.23 (34%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Frederic – Philp – Podkolzin2:59
xG 0.01–0.13 (8%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard13:16
xG 1.28–0.68 (65%)attempts 27–7goals 0–2
- Kulak – Nurse2:07
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–1
- Kulak – Walman7:04
xG 0.18–0.39 (32%)attempts 9–4goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).