Sat, Nov 8, 2025·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Anaheim Ducks 4, Vegas Golden Knights 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 18 | 212 | 06 | 13 | 429 |
| VGK | 17 | 08 | 221 | 03 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:47VGKBrett HowdenAssists: William Karlsson, Noah Hanifin · Snap, 0.21 xG0–1
- P1 15:49ANAFrank VatranoAssists: Olen Zellweger, Jacob Trouba · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 10:39ANALeo CarlssonAssists: Troy Terry · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 16:50ANALeo CarlssonAssists: Olen Zellweger · Snap, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 3:56VGKPavel DorofeyevPPAssists: Jack Eichel · Snap, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 14:53VGKKaedan KorczakAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Mitch Marner · Snap, 0.23 xG3–3
- OT 4:28ANAJacob TroubaGWGAssists: Leo Carlsson · Backhand, 0.21 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
- P2 0:42ANAOlen Zellweger: Interference2 min
- P2 6:54VGKKeegan Kolesar: Holding2 min
- P2 0:00ANATroy Terry: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:45ANALeo Carlsson: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carlsson won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Terry – Carlsson14:35
xG 0.92–0.57 (62%)attempts 16–10goals 2–1
- McTavish – Gauthier – Sennecke13:33
xG 0.69–0.54 (56%)attempts 20–15goals 0–0
- Johnston – Vatrano – Harkins6:55
xG 0.25–0.51 (33%)attempts 3–6goals 1–1
- Killorn – Poehling – Nesterenko11:31
xG 0.17–0.78 (18%)attempts 10–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Zellweger18:59
xG 1.18–0.64 (65%)attempts 25–17goals 2–0
- Moore – Mintyukov10:12
xG 0.32–0.81 (28%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
- Helleson – LaCombe17:43
xG 0.44–1.03 (30%)attempts 18–22goals 0–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSaad – Hertl – Dorofeyev11:49
xG 0.93–0.26 (78%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
- Barbashev – Eichel – Marner12:44
xG 0.75–0.48 (61%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Howden4:41
xG 0.26–0.01 (97%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Smith – Kolesar – Howden2:33
xG 0.20–0.14 (58%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Korczak8:10
xG 0.89–0.43 (68%)attempts 16–13goals 1–0
- Lauzon – Korczak8:47
xG 0.63–0.30 (68%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- McNabb – Theodore18:12
xG 0.58–0.39 (60%)attempts 14–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).