Tue, Nov 11, 2025·Lenovo Center, Raleigh
Washington Capitals 4, Carolina Hurricanes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 110 | 18 | 210 | 428 |
| CAR | 07 | 114 | 010 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:42WSHBrandon DuhaimeAssists: Ethen Frank, Nic Dowd · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 5:59WSHDylan StromeGWGAssists: Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson · Snap, 0.15 xG2–0
- P2 13:56CARNikolaj EhlersAssists: Jackson Blake, Shayne Gostisbehere · Snap, 0.21 xG2–1
- P3 5:46WSHJakob ChychrunPPAssists: Ryan Leonard, John Carlson · Snap, 0.24 xG3–1
- P3 19:29WSHAlex OvechkinENAssists: Anthony Beauvillier · Wrist, 0.32 xG4–1
Penalties (14)
- P1 0:55CARK'Andre Miller: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:34CARMike Reilly: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:00CARFrederik Andersen: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:00WSHNic Dowd: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 15:00WSHMartin Fehérváry: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:00WSHMartin Fehérváry: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:00CARLogan Stankoven: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:58WSHConnor McMichael: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:33WSHJakob Chychrun: Holding2 min
- P2 10:17CARSean Walker: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:11CARK'Andre Miller: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 8:13WSHRasmus Sandin: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:10CARSeth Jarvis: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:38WSHJakob Chychrun: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McMichael won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Dowd – Duhaime – Frank7:42
xG 0.15–0.20 (43%)attempts 5–14goals 1–0
- Sourdif – Lapierre – Leonard4:25
xG 0.47–0.53 (47%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Ovechkin – Strome – Beauvillier6:38
xG 0.29–0.36 (45%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Wilson – McMichael – Protas10:11
xG 0.23–0.53 (30%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRoy – Chychrun7:25
xG 0.36–0.27 (57%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Roy – Fehérváry7:11
xG 0.30–0.27 (53%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Roy – Chisholm2:45
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Martinook – Carrier8:37
xG 0.53–0.30 (64%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Ehlers – Stankoven – Blake7:02
xG 0.62–0.41 (60%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Aho – Svechnikov – Jarvis6:16
xG 0.32–0.22 (60%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- Hall – Robinson – Kotkaniemi8:18
xG 0.23–0.19 (55%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Nikishin10:51
xG 1.01–0.45 (69%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Walker – Miller12:50
xG 0.63–0.47 (57%)attempts 23–7goals 0–1
- Reilly – Nystrom8:22
xG 0.25–0.20 (55%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).