Wed, Nov 12, 2025·Benchmark International Arena, Tampa
New York Rangers 7, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 48 | 15 | 28 | 721 |
| TBL | 310 | 012 | 014 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:09NYRWill CuyllePPAssists: Adam Fox, Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–0
- P1 3:31NYRJ.T. MillerAssists: Mika Zibanejad · Deflected, 0.14 xG2–0
- P1 6:04TBLScott SabourinAssists: Curtis Douglas, Jack Finley · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P1 7:08NYRAlexis LafrenièreAssists: Artemi Panarin, Carson Soucy · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P1 13:59TBLZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Yanni Gourde, Oliver Bjorkstrand · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–2
- P1 16:20NYRWill BorgenGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–2
- P1 17:32TBLJake GuentzelSHAssists: J.J. Moser · Backhand, 0.13 xG4–3
- P2 18:19NYRVincent TrocheckAssists: Artemi Panarin, Vladislav Gavrikov · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–3
- P3 5:03NYRVincent TrocheckAssists: Urho Vaakanainen, Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.08 xG6–3
- P3 17:49NYRWill CuylleENAssists: Adam Fox · Wrist, 0.72 xG7–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:45TBLYanni Gourde: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:45TBLYanni Gourde: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:20NYRIgor Shesterkin: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:03NYRVladislav Gavrikov: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:03TBLScott Sabourin: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:03NYRVladislav Gavrikov: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:06TBLJack Finley: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 14:22NYRAdam Fox: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Guentzel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestCarrick – Raddysh – Edstrom6:11
xG 0.35–0.12 (74%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Sheary – Laba – Perreault2:17
xG 0.27–0.13 (68%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Sheary – Cuylle – Laba5:50
xG 0.21–0.11 (65%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière10:22
xG 0.51–0.63 (45%)attempts 13–13goals 4–1
Defence pairs
- bestSoucy – Borgen13:04
xG 0.72–0.58 (55%)attempts 16–11goals 2–1
- Soucy – Gavrikov2:12
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Gavrikov – Fox15:18
xG 0.56–0.66 (46%)attempts 11–16goals 2–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Guentzel – Point9:43
xG 0.87–0.43 (67%)attempts 19–7goals 0–1
- Bjorkstrand – Katchouk – Goncalves3:31
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Gourde – Girgensons – Bjorkstrand4:06
xG 0.17–0.18 (48%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Kucherov – Katchouk – Goncalves2:50
xG 0.13–0.24 (36%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRaddysh – Moser14:01
xG 0.93–0.27 (77%)attempts 21–7goals 1–0
- Cernak – D'Astous13:43
xG 0.28–0.44 (39%)attempts 9–13goals 0–3
- Crozier – Lilleberg13:29
xG 0.30–0.99 (23%)attempts 8–16goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).