Thu, Nov 13, 2025·Ball Arena, Denver
Buffalo Sabres 3, Colorado Avalanche 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 26 | 18 | 07 | 321 |
| COL | 36 | 112 | 216 | 634 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:52COLMartin NecasAssists: Cale Makar, Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 6:10COLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Sam Malinski, Martin Necas · Snap, 0.15 xG0–2
- P1 7:47BUFBowen ByramAssists: Tage Thompson, Alex Tuch · Snap, 0.20 xG1–2
- P1 9:46COLBrock NelsonAssists: Ross Colton, Gavin Brindley · Snap, 0.16 xG1–3
- P1 13:28BUFJordan GreenwayAssists: Owen Power, Josh Doan · Slap, 0.10 xG2–3
- P2 14:56BUFTage ThompsonPPAssists: Isak Rosen, Peyton Krebs · Slap, 0.08 xG3–3
- P2 16:22COLGavin BrindleyGWGAssists: Josh Manson, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–4
- P3 16:53COLMartin NecasAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Samuel Girard · Snap, 0.17 xG3–5
- P3 18:11COLGabriel LandeskogENAssists: Martin Necas · Snap, 0.80 xG3–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 19:07COLRoss Colton: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 6:30COLGabriel Landeskog: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:45BUFOwen Power: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:50COLNathan MacKinnon: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 3:01BUFTyson Kozak: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:14COLParker Kelly: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Kozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestTuch – Thompson – McLeod10:44
xG 0.65–0.59 (53%)attempts 13–13goals 1–1
- Quinn – Rosen – Ostlund10:10
xG 0.39–0.43 (48%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Greenway – Doan – Kozak10:38
xG 0.21–0.49 (30%)attempts 8–11goals 1–1
- Malenstyn – Krebs – Dunne9:01
xG 0.17–0.51 (25%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Samuelsson – Power12:46
xG 0.62–0.57 (52%)attempts 15–11goals 1–2
- Samuelsson – Kesselring2:14
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Kesselring – Power2:08
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – MacKinnon – Necas13:56
xG 1.09–0.62 (64%)attempts 18–15goals 3–0
- Nelson – Colton – Brindley9:45
xG 0.39–0.28 (58%)attempts 9–8goals 2–1
- Landeskog – Olofsson – Drury7:19
xG 0.41–0.38 (52%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Kelly – Bardakov – Makar5:19
xG 0.27–0.25 (52%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar14:55
xG 1.00–0.26 (79%)attempts 21–7goals 1–0
- Girard – Malinski13:00
xG 0.99–0.71 (58%)attempts 18–14goals 3–2
- Burns – Manson12:32
xG 0.36–0.34 (52%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).