Wed, Nov 19, 2025·Capital One Arena, Washington
Edmonton Oilers 4, Washington Capitals 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 29 | 05 | 216 | 430 |
| WSH | 311 | 15 | 36 | 722 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:17WSHAliaksei ProtasAssists: John Carlson, Justin Sourdif · Snap, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 6:04WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Jakob Chychrun, Matt Roy · Tip-in, 0.05 xG0–2
- P1 7:05EDMDarnell NurseAssists: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P1 10:34WSHRyan LeonardAssists: Connor McMichael, John Carlson · Snap, 0.14 xG1–3
- P1 12:17EDMDarnell NurseAssists: Zach Hyman · Snap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P2 11:49WSHRyan LeonardAssists: Connor McMichael · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–4
- P3 2:41EDMDavid TomasekAssists: Andrew Mangiapane, Mattias Janmark · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–4
- P3 6:37WSHAnthony BeauvillierGWGAssists: Dylan Strome, Jakob Chychrun · Snap, 0.19 xG3–5
- P3 7:47EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard · Snap, 0.10 xG4–5
- P3 18:59WSHTom WilsonENAssists: Connor McMichael, John Carlson · Snap, 0.59 xG4–6
- P3 19:27WSHTom WilsonENUnassisted · Snap, 0.79 xG4–7
Penalties (4)
- P1 15:19WSHTom Wilson: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:11WSHJustin Sourdif: Holding2 min
- P3 6:53WSHJohn Carlson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:39EDMMattias Ekholm: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against McMichael
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestMcDavid – Roslovic – Savoie5:16
xG 0.59–0.32 (65%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Hyman – Draisaitl – McDavid4:31
xG 0.27–0.02 (94%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Draisaitl – Mangiapane – Podkolzin7:05
xG 0.61–0.37 (63%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Henrique – Roslovic – Podkolzin2:04
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNurse – Bouchard18:10
xG 1.78–0.72 (71%)attempts 29–13goals 3–1
- Ekholm – Walman18:04
xG 0.97–0.93 (51%)attempts 23–11goals 0–1
- Kulak – Emberson7:30
xG 0.26–0.26 (50%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestMilano – Lapierre – Frank6:27
xG 0.65–0.19 (77%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
- Duhaime – McMichael – Leonard6:43
xG 0.57–0.34 (63%)attempts 6–11goals 1–1
- Ovechkin – Strome – Beauvillier10:17
xG 0.36–0.40 (48%)attempts 6–10goals 2–0
- Wilson – McMichael – Protas2:31
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Sandin11:06
xG 0.56–0.20 (74%)attempts 12–8goals 0–2
- Chychrun – Sandin3:16
xG 0.19–0.45 (29%)attempts 1–6goals 1–0
- Roy – Chychrun14:54
xG 0.60–0.93 (39%)attempts 11–21goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).