Sat, Nov 22, 2025·Centre Bell, Montreal
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Montréal Canadiens 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 011 | 16 | 19 | 226 |
| MTL | 29 | 217 | 13 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:11MTLLane HutsonAssists: Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield · Snap, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 13:33MTLNoah DobsonAssists: Mike Matheson, Ivan Demidov · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 4:09MTLNoah DobsonGWGAssists: Ivan Demidov, Juraj Slafkovský · Snap, 0.09 xG0–3
- P2 13:11MTLJosh AndersonAssists: Florian Xhekaj · Snap, 0.05 xG0–4
- P2 17:19TOROliver Ekman-LarssonAssists: Easton Cowan, William Nylander · Snap, 0.07 xG1–4
- P3 14:55TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: Morgan Rielly, Matias Maccelli · Snap, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 17:50MTLJosh AndersonENAssists: Mike Matheson, Jake Evans · Snap, 0.50 xG2–5
Penalties (16)
- P1 9:39MTLJayden Struble: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:39MTLJayden Struble: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:39TOROliver Ekman-Larsson: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:30TORWilliam Nylander: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:46TORJohn Tavares: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:52TORJake McCabe: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:13MTLFlorian Xhekaj: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 11:22MTLBrendan Gallagher: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:22TORDakota Mermis: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:26MTLFlorian Xhekaj: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 14:26TORDakota Mermis: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:26MTLFlorian Xhekaj: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:00MTLJayden Struble: Misconduct10 min
- P3 0:00MTLArber Xhekaj: Misconduct10 min
- P3 0:00TORDakota Joshua: Misconduct10 min
- P3 0:00TORSteven Lorentz: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLaughton – Lorentz – McMann2:55
xG 0.28–0.16 (64%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
- Blais – Lorentz – Maccelli2:26
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Tavares – Nylander – Cowan8:33
xG 0.28–0.26 (51%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
- Domi – Blais – Maccelli4:39
xG 0.01–0.10 (5%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Stecher2:52
xG 0.41–0.09 (82%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0
- Stecher – Benoit4:53
xG 0.03–0.10 (23%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Mermis – Stecher7:43
xG 0.15–0.26 (37%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestKapanen – Slafkovský – Demidov6:41
xG 0.36–0.25 (59%)attempts 7–10goals 2–0
- Suzuki – Caufield – Bolduc8:55
xG 0.33–0.22 (60%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Veleno – Davidson7:51
xG 0.28–0.24 (54%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Anderson – Evans – Xhekaj8:55
xG 0.15–0.20 (44%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Dobson12:53
xG 0.56–0.22 (72%)attempts 17–15goals 2–1
- Struble – Hutson11:42
xG 0.38–0.36 (51%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Carrier – Xhekaj11:16
xG 0.21–0.33 (38%)attempts 3–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).