Sun, Nov 23, 2025·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Carolina Hurricanes 1, Buffalo Sabres 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 15 | 012 | 013 | 130 |
| BUF | 17 | 210 | 14 | 421 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:51BUFAlex TuchPPAssists: Ryan McLeod, Josh Doan · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 14:36CARShayne GostisbeherePPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 3:55BUFJack QuinnGWGAssists: Ryan McLeod, Jason Zucker · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 18:36BUFBeck MalenstynAssists: Tyson Kozak, Peyton Krebs · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 19:38BUFTage ThompsonENAssists: Zach Benson · Wrist, 0.81 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:22CARAlexander Nikishin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 7:55BUFJason Zucker: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P1 12:16CARSebastian Aho: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:55BUFRasmus Dahlin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 16:27CARSebastian Aho: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:08BUFAlex Tuch: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:26BUFJosh Dunne: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:59CARWilliam Carrier: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Stankoven
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestMartinook – Carrier – Blake2:23
xG 0.45–0.11 (80%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Aho – Svechnikov – Jarvis10:57
xG 0.84–0.58 (59%)attempts 20–6goals 0–1
- Ehlers – Stankoven – Blake8:56
xG 0.35–0.39 (47%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Jankowski – Martinook – Carrier2:14
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChatfield – Miller11:27
xG 0.83–0.34 (71%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Nikishin – Nystrom9:50
xG 0.32–0.38 (46%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Walker12:00
xG 0.58–0.68 (46%)attempts 17–10goals 0–2
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestZucker – McLeod – Quinn9:19
xG 0.91–0.67 (57%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Kozak – Ostlund – Benson8:17
xG 0.30–0.28 (51%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Malenstyn – Krebs – Dunne6:11
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Tuch – Thompson – Doan9:16
xG 0.26–0.74 (26%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimmins – Byram9:58
xG 0.67–0.46 (59%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
- Bryson – Dahlin2:23
xG 0.10–0.03 (76%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Byram – Power2:43
xG 0.33–0.27 (55%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).