Wed, Nov 26, 2025·Capital One Arena, Washington
Winnipeg Jets 3, Washington Capitals 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 16 | 17 | 18 | 321 |
| WSH | 212 | 115 | 18 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:38WSHJohn CarlsonAssists: Tom Wilson · Slap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 14:21WSHJakob ChychrunAssists: Sonny Milano, Ethen Frank · Snap, 0.02 xG0–2
- P1 19:38WPGGabriel VilardiAssists: Kyle Connor · Snap, 0.30 xG1–2
- P2 1:24WPGGabriel VilardiPPAssists: Josh Morrissey, Kyle Connor · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 5:22WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Matt Roy, Anthony Beauvillier · Snap, 0.01 xG2–3
- P3 5:25WSHConnor McMichaelGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–4
- P3 15:11WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Kyle Connor, Dylan DeMelo · Snap, 0.22 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 19:50WSHDylan Strome: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 19:50WPGVladislav Namestnikov: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:50WSHDylan Strome: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00WPGMorgan Barron: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:35WSHBrandon Duhaime: Cross checking2 min
- P3 12:03WPGJonathan Toews: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Connor – Vilardi12:46
xG 1.42–0.83 (63%)attempts 18–13goals 2–1
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Iafallo7:44
xG 0.18–0.23 (44%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Toews – Nyquist – Barron10:15
xG 0.51–0.59 (46%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
- Namestnikov – Pearson – Perfetti8:11
xG 0.06–0.48 (12%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey17:53
xG 1.56–1.06 (60%)attempts 23–20goals 2–0
- Miller – Stanley12:17
xG 0.34–0.30 (54%)attempts 12–9goals 0–2
- Samberg – Salomonsson13:48
xG 0.31–0.80 (28%)attempts 14–19goals 0–2
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Strome – Beauvillier7:17
xG 0.38–0.27 (59%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Duhaime – McMichael – Leonard6:27
xG 0.21–0.15 (58%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Milano – Lapierre – Frank5:09
xG 0.16–0.20 (45%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Wilson – Protas – Sourdif9:33
xG 0.57–0.62 (48%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestChychrun – Sandin2:33
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 1–0
- Roy – Chychrun10:57
xG 0.46–0.15 (75%)attempts 15–9goals 2–0
- Carlson – Sandin2:44
xG 0.45–0.18 (71%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).