Fri, Nov 28, 2025·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Utah Mammoth 3, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 28 | 113 | 09 | 330 |
| DAL | 111 | 312 | 05 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:57UTALogan CooleyAssists: Dylan Guenther, Kailer Yamamoto · Snap, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 12:17UTAKevin RooneyAssists: John Marino, Michael Carcone · Snap, 0.11 xG2–0
- P1 17:38DALRoope HintzPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Miro Heiskanen · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 8:16DALJamie BennAssists: Alexander Petrovic · Snap, 0.17 xG2–2
- P2 9:18DALJason RobertsonAssists: Kyle Capobianco, Justin Hryckowian · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–3
- P2 16:14UTAJack McBainAssists: Lawson Crouse, John Marino · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–3
- P2 18:33DALWyatt JohnstonPPGWGAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Miro Heiskanen · Snap, 0.24 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:50UTAKailer Yamamoto: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:32DALRoope Hintz: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:19UTASean Durzi: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 10:48DALSam Steel: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:05UTAKevin Stenlund: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 18:05UTAIan Cole: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stenlund won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Utah Mammoth
Forward lines
- bestYamamoto – Guenther – Cooley9:47
xG 0.66–0.19 (78%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Crouse – Carcone – McBain4:06
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Rooney – Tanev – Carcone4:33
xG 0.17–0.08 (69%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Stenlund – Rooney – Tanev3:39
xG 0.09–0.11 (44%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Marino15:20
xG 1.22–0.93 (57%)attempts 18–11goals 3–0
- Durzi – Simashev3:05
xG 0.30–0.09 (76%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Cole – Sergachev3:51
xG 0.24–0.04 (87%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBäck – Bourque – Hryckowian8:18
xG 0.67–0.17 (79%)attempts 8–1goals 0–1
- Seguin – Hintz – Robertson10:35
xG 0.46–0.50 (48%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Blackwell – Faksa – Steel6:45
xG 0.17–0.44 (28%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Benn – Rantanen – Johnston9:26
xG 0.32–0.59 (35%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLindell – Heiskanen17:42
xG 1.28–0.89 (59%)attempts 15–15goals 0–1
- Capobianco – Kolyachonok9:53
xG 0.46–0.30 (61%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Petrovic – Bichsel15:21
xG 0.37–1.55 (19%)attempts 10–20goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it UTA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − UTA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).