Sun, Nov 30, 2025·UBS Arena, Elmont
Washington Capitals 4, New York Islanders 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 17 | 18 | 24 | 419 |
| NYI | 09 | 013 | 19 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:37WSHTom WilsonPPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Ryan Leonard · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 13:58WSHTom WilsonGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–0
- P3 13:43NYIBo HorvatPPAssists: Ryan Pulock, Matthew Schaefer · Snap, 0.24 xG2–1
- P3 18:49WSHAliaksei ProtasENAssists: Matt Roy, Tom Wilson · Slap, 0.76 xG3–1
- P3 19:29WSHAlex OvechkinENAssists: Anthony Beauvillier · Wrist, 0.80 xG4–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:25NYIMatthew Schaefer: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 1:22WSHTom Wilson: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:02WSHJakob Chychrun: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:55NYIScott Mayfield: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:24WSHAnthony Beauvillier: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McMichael won the faceoff against Ritchie
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Protas – Sourdif11:29
xG 0.26–0.19 (58%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Milano – Lapierre – Frank5:43
xG 0.08–0.16 (33%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Strome – Beauvillier7:44
xG 0.55–0.82 (40%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
- Duhaime – McMichael – Leonard9:24
xG 0.16–0.63 (20%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRoy – Fehérváry3:47
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Carlson – Fehérváry9:48
xG 0.30–0.23 (56%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Sandin11:09
xG 0.22–0.47 (32%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Drouin – Barzal8:16
xG 0.75–0.30 (71%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Duclair – Holmstrom – Ritchie10:36
xG 0.49–0.20 (71%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Cizikas – MacLean – Tsyplakov7:22
xG 0.11–0.03 (76%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Horvat – Heineman – Shabanov8:42
xG 0.15–0.48 (24%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Mitchell8:23
xG 0.30–0.02 (95%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Pelech – Pulock3:51
xG 0.40–0.17 (71%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Pulock – Schaefer13:57
xG 0.58–0.36 (62%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).