Tue, Dec 2, 2025·Centre Bell, Montreal
Ottawa Senators 5, Montréal Canadiens 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 210 | 211 | 18 | 529 |
| MTL | 16 | 110 | 06 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:37MTLJuraj SlafkovskýPPAssists: Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki · Snap, 0.21 xG0–1
- P1 4:01OTTFabian ZetterlundAssists: Tyler Kleven, Jordan Spence · Slap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 16:53OTTArtem ZubAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Fabian Zetterlund · Snap, 0.28 xG2–1
- P2 5:48OTTJake SandersonGWGAssists: Michael Amadio · Backhand, 0.16 xG3–1
- P2 6:58OTTDrake BathersonAssists: Tyler Kleven, Jordan Spence · Snap, 0.22 xG4–1
- P2 8:50MTLNick SuzukiPPAssists: Cole Caufield, Lane Hutson · Snap, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 12:43OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Tim Stützle, David Perron · Snap, 0.19 xG5–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:55OTTLars Eller: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 8:24OTTShane Pinto: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 8:24MTLJayden Struble: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:36MTLJake Evans: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:49OTTShane Pinto: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:50OTTMichael Amadio: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:24MTLArber Xhekaj: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:15MTLJosh Anderson: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:15OTTRidly Greig: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kapanen won the faceoff against Cozens
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestZetterlund – Tkachuk – Stützle7:38
xG 0.85–0.17 (83%)attempts 13–6goals 2–0
- Perron – Batherson – Cozens7:08
xG 0.67–0.16 (81%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Giroux – Amadio – Pinto11:07
xG 0.61–0.24 (71%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Batherson – Cozens – Greig3:57
xG 0.29–0.01 (95%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpence – Kleven16:07
xG 1.79–0.46 (80%)attempts 26–14goals 3–0
- Sanderson – Zub15:52
xG 0.69–0.51 (58%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Jensen – Matinpalo10:42
xG 0.33–0.27 (55%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGallagher – Texier – Veleno8:13
xG 0.34–0.13 (72%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Veleno – Xhekaj2:41
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Anderson – Evans – Xhekaj3:11
xG 0.06–0.44 (12%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
- Suzuki – Caufield – Bolduc8:38
xG 0.33–0.71 (32%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarrier – Xhekaj8:54
xG 0.33–0.00 (99%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Carrier – Hutson5:05
xG 0.05–0.19 (19%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Matheson – Dobson13:48
xG 0.55–0.94 (37%)attempts 16–16goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).