Thu, Dec 4, 2025·Benchmark International Arena, Tampa
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 18 | 211 | 112 | 431 |
| TBL | 015 | 19 | 216 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:12PITVille KoivunenPPAssists: Kris Letang, Tommy Novak · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 7:53PITEvgeni MalkinUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 9:49PITBen KindelPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Evgeni Malkin · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–0
- P2 18:46TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Darren Raddysh, Jake Guentzel · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 1:17TBLBrandon HagelPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Darren Raddysh · Slap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 11:44TBLBrandon HagelAssists: Nick Paul, Gage Goncalves · Snap, 0.22 xG3–3
- P3 17:17PITEvgeni MalkinGWGAssists: Tommy Novak, Anthony Mantha · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:36TBLCurtis Douglas: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 2:36PITBokondji Imama: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:59TBLMax Crozier: Holding2 min
- P1 11:14PITParker Wotherspoon: Holding2 min
- P1 13:58PITRyan Graves: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:36PITSidney Crosby: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:13TBLDarren Raddysh: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:16TBLDeclan Carlile: Interference2 min
- P2 14:02PITErik Karlsson: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:02PITKris Letang: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 3:18PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:00TBLCharle-Edouard D'Astous: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Hayes – Rust10:00
xG 0.65–0.34 (66%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Crosby – Koivunen – McGroarty2:21
xG 0.09–0.01 (87%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Imama – Dewar – Lizotte4:17
xG 0.13–0.09 (59%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Malkin – Mantha – Novak8:08
xG 0.52–0.51 (51%)attempts 7–7goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Wotherspoon11:20
xG 0.85–0.51 (63%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- Letang – Shea10:22
xG 0.59–0.56 (51%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
- Wotherspoon – Shea2:47
xG 0.15–0.12 (55%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Cirelli – Hagel5:05
xG 0.69–0.28 (71%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Guentzel – Bjorkstrand – Paul3:08
xG 0.01–0.02 (40%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Guentzel – Cirelli4:54
xG 0.17–0.34 (33%)attempts 3–6goals 1–1
- Gourde – Girgensons – Holmberg12:16
xG 0.14–0.78 (16%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMoser – Lilleberg3:42
xG 0.12–0.03 (83%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- D'Astous – Crozier2:05
xG 0.12–0.04 (72%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- D'Astous – Lilleberg8:49
xG 0.80–0.74 (52%)attempts 8–9goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).