Thu, Dec 4, 2025·Benchmark International Arena, Tampa
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 75% of the time.
69%
19%
TBL winsPIT wins
Pittsburgh Penguins
Official boxscore lines, plus individual xG, on-ice expected-goals share at 5-on-5 and win probability added (percentage points).
| 0 | 1 | 1 | −1 | 6 | 25:29 | 0.13 | – | +7.7 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 2 | 21:37 | 0.58 | – | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 1 | 21:30 | 0.06 | – | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:05 | 0.03 | – | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 20:03 | 0.07 | – | +14.7 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 20:01 | 0.20 | – | 0.0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | −1 | 5 | 17:50 | 0.44 | – | +7.7 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:07 | 0.09 | – | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 3 | 14:58 | 0.30 | – | 0.0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 3 | 14:58 | 0.27 | – | +58.6 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:40 | 0.03 | – | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:16 | 0.00 | – | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13:43 | 0.08 | – | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 1 | 13:01 | 0.03 | – | 0.0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | −1 | 2 | 12:48 | 0.20 | – | +14.7 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 1 | 11:40 | 0.29 | – | +35.2 | |
| 0 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 11:21 | 0.00 | – | +49.8 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:38 | 0.00 | – | 0.0 |
| W | 40 | 37 | 3 | .925 | 4.55 | +1.6 | 60:00 |
Tampa Bay Lightning
Official boxscore lines, plus individual xG, on-ice expected-goals share at 5-on-5 and win probability added (percentage points).
| 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 27:49 | 0.20 | – | +23.6 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 26:08 | 0.38 | – | +7.2 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | −1 | 10 | 25:28 | 1.11 | – | +23.6 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 23:03 | 0.02 | – | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 1 | 19:31 | 0.30 | – | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 0 | 18:06 | 0.11 | – | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 1 | 17:40 | 0.18 | – | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 17:24 | 0.28 | – | +26.9 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:24 | 0.41 | – | 0.0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 17:09 | 0.83 | – | +43.3 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:22 | 0.13 | – | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:38 | 0.13 | – | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13:41 | 0.25 | – | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10:57 | 0.05 | – | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10:12 | 0.09 | – | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9:02 | 0.09 | – | 0.0 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 8:16 | 0.00 | – | +26.9 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:33 | 0.01 | – | 0.0 |
| L | 31 | 27 | 4 | .871 | 2.81 | −1.2 | 57:48 |
Shift data for this game is incomplete, so on-ice figures are not shown.