Thu, Dec 4, 2025·Lenovo Center, Raleigh
Toronto Maple Leafs 5, Carolina Hurricanes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 27 | 28 | 19 | 524 |
| CAR | 113 | 011 | 09 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:53TORBobby McMannAssists: Nicolas Roy, Jake McCabe · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 11:45TORScott LaughtonGWGAssists: Philippe Myers, Simon Benoit · Snap, 0.19 xG2–0
- P1 15:45CARSeth JarvisAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Sebastian Aho · Snap, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 4:44TORMatthew KniesAssists: Max Domi, Morgan Rielly · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–1
- P2 10:39TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Max Domi, Matthew Knies · Snap, 0.16 xG4–1
- P3 18:16TORBobby McMannENAssists: Nicolas Roy · Backhand, 0.79 xG5–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 13:00TORAuston Matthews: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:23TORMorgan Rielly: Holding2 min
- P3 1:08CARAndrei Svechnikov: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:40TOROliver Ekman-Larsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 13:03CARJalen Chatfield: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestDomi – Matthews – Knies11:33
xG 0.62–0.44 (58%)attempts 11–12goals 2–0
- Laughton – Lorentz – Robertson5:55
xG 0.21–0.41 (34%)attempts 2–12goals 1–0
- Joshua – Roy – McMann8:48
xG 0.33–0.55 (38%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
- Tavares – Nylander – Cowan7:41
xG 0.24–0.51 (32%)attempts 1–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Ekman-Larsson – Rielly14:06
xG 0.77–0.73 (51%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
- Ekman-Larsson – Benoit2:48
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- McCabe – Stecher16:54
xG 0.87–1.02 (46%)attempts 14–20goals 1–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestEhlers – Stankoven – Blake9:29
xG 1.06–0.50 (68%)attempts 15–5goals 0–2
- Hall – Jankowski – Robinson8:15
xG 0.48–0.27 (64%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Staal – Martinook – Carrier10:36
xG 0.32–0.16 (66%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Aho – Svechnikov – Jarvis10:49
xG 0.94–0.98 (49%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Nystrom10:32
xG 0.66–0.42 (61%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Gostisbehere – Nikishin3:19
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Chatfield – Walker2:30
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).