Fri, Dec 5, 2025·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Buffalo Sabres 1, Winnipeg Jets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 115 | 011 | 09 | 135 |
| WPG | 18 | 29 | 16 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:24WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Gabriel Vilardi, Dylan Samberg · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 14:44BUFJason ZuckerPPAssists: Josh Norris, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–1
- P2 2:22WPGTanner PearsonGWGAssists: Cole Koepke · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 18:42WPGCole KoepkeAssists: Morgan Barron, Dylan DeMelo · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–3
- P3 19:26WPGGabriel VilardiENAssists: Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.73 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:40WPGMorgan Barron: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:25WPGJonathan Toews: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 16:18BUFBowen Byram: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:13WPGLogan Stanley: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:13BUFJordan Greenway: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:18BUFRasmus Dahlin: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Krebs won the faceoff against Barron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGreenway – Malenstyn – Krebs11:17
xG 0.50–0.36 (58%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Zucker – Quinn – Ostlund4:05
xG 0.12–0.00 (96%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Zucker – McLeod – Quinn6:46
xG 0.25–0.15 (62%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Thompson – Norris – Benson11:29
xG 0.65–0.68 (49%)attempts 13–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestDahlin – Power2:19
xG 0.38–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Bryson – Power6:23
xG 0.25–0.10 (72%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
- Samuelsson – Power2:21
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Connor – Vilardi14:18
xG 0.94–0.73 (56%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Niederreiter – Namestnikov – Iafallo7:09
xG 0.21–0.07 (76%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Pearson – Barron – Koepke8:54
xG 0.40–0.37 (52%)attempts 5–14goals 2–0
- Toews – Lowry – Perfetti7:17
xG 0.03–0.08 (28%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Samberg – Pionk16:15
xG 0.21–0.65 (25%)attempts 9–20goals 0–0
- Stanley – Salomonsson11:17
xG 0.00–0.51 (0%)attempts 1–12goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey16:29
xG 0.32–0.85 (28%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).