Mon, Dec 8, 2025·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Tampa Bay Lightning 0, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 015 | 05 | 09 | 029 |
| TOR | 110 | 08 | 17 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:26TORMorgan RiellyGWGAssists: Easton Cowan, John Tavares · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–1
- P3 19:59TORAuston MatthewsENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 9:26TBLJack Finley: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 18:43TOROliver Ekman-Larsson: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:00TORBobby McMann: Match penalty5 min
- P3 3:00TBLGage Goncalves: Kneeing5 min
- P3 3:00TBLMax Crozier: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:00TORDakota Joshua: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:00TBLGage Goncalves: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 15:03TBLJake Guentzel: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestGuentzel – Paul – Point7:38
xG 0.34–0.06 (86%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Cirelli – Hagel12:57
xG 0.52–0.42 (55%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Guentzel – Point4:24
xG 0.04–0.07 (34%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Bjorkstrand – Finley – Goncalves3:40
xG 0.07–0.11 (38%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRaddysh – Moser14:57
xG 0.73–0.47 (61%)attempts 21–11goals 0–0
- Hedman – Crozier12:09
xG 0.37–0.43 (46%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- D'Astous – Lilleberg15:56
xG 0.42–0.55 (43%)attempts 20–12goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestDomi – Matthews – Knies12:38
xG 0.77–0.38 (67%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Laughton – Lorentz7:03
xG 0.41–0.23 (64%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Joshua – Roy – McMann5:18
xG 0.18–0.01 (93%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Tavares – Nylander – Cowan11:25
xG 0.24–0.47 (34%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMermis – Benoit8:47
xG 0.41–0.27 (60%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- McCabe – Benoit2:35
xG 0.09–0.04 (67%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- McCabe – Stecher16:21
xG 0.52–0.61 (46%)attempts 10–23goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).