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Ice Lab

Mon, Dec 8, 2025·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary

Buffalo Sabres 4, Calgary Flames 7

Away

Buffalo Sabres

4

Final

Home

Calgary Flames

7

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 59% of the time.

CGY winsBUF wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
BUF0731517429
CGY21231026728

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 9:54CGYYegor SharangovichAssists: MacKenzie Weegar, Nazem Kadri · Deflected, 0.16 xG0–1
  2. P1 13:22CGYRasmus AnderssonPPAssists: Matt Coronato, Nazem Kadri · Slap, 0.12 xG0–2
  3. P2 4:24BUFTage ThompsonPPAssists: Jason Zucker, Josh Norris · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
  4. P2 7:05CGYJonathan HuberdeauPPAssists: Matt Coronato, Morgan Frost · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–3
  5. P2 13:43BUFOwen PowerAssists: Peyton Krebs, Jacob Bryson · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
  6. P2 14:14CGYNazem KadriAssists: Joel Farabee, Yegor Sharangovich · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–4
  7. P2 16:32BUFRasmus DahlinAssists: Josh Doan, Josh Norris · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–4
  8. P2 17:27CGYYan KuznetsovGWGAssists: Blake Coleman · Poke, 0.17 xG3–5
  9. P3 17:29BUFAlex TuchPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Jason Zucker · Tip-in, 0.08 xG4–5
  10. P3 18:12CGYMikael BacklundENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.68 xG4–6
  11. P3 19:53CGYYegor SharangovichENAssists: Yan Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.32 xG4–7
Penalties (17)
  1. P1 1:26CGYRasmus Andersson: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 10:40CGYAdam Klapka: Interference2 min
  3. P1 10:40BUFPeyton Krebs: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 10:40CGYRyan Lomberg: Roughing2 min
  5. P1 11:21BUFJosh Doan: Interference2 min
  6. P1 12:50BUFJack Quinn: Tripping2 min · PPG
  7. P2 2:28CGYMorgan Frost: Tripping2 min · PPG
  8. P2 5:02BUFBeck Malenstyn: Interference2 min
  9. P2 6:54BUFJordan Greenway: Tripping2 min · PPG
  10. P2 16:44BUFJason Zucker: High sticking2 min
  11. P2 17:14CGYMatt Coronato: High sticking2 min
  12. P2 19:14CGYMikael Backlund: Slashing2 min
  13. P3 1:32CGYJonathan Huberdeau: Roughing2 min
  14. P3 1:32BUFRyan McLeod: Roughing2 min
  15. P3 17:02CGYKevin Bahl: Roughing2 min · PPG
  16. P3 17:02BUFPeyton Krebs: Roughing2 min
  17. P3 17:02CGYDustin Wolf: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BUF00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CGY
47% to win53% to win
← BUF attackCGY attack →
  1. P1 20:00Krebs won the faceoff against Beecher
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BUFCGY
29Shots on goal28
3.1Expected goals3.7
66Shot attempts47
33Faceoffs won37
6Power plays5
16Penalty minutes18
19Hits17
8Blocked shots17
9Giveaways14
4Takeaways4

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Buffalo Sabres

Forward lines

  1. bestNorris – Doan – Benson8:06

    xG 0.62–0.18 (77%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0

  2. Malenstyn – Krebs – Kozak4:50

    xG 0.44–0.08 (85%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0

  3. Tuch – Thompson – Krebs4:07

    xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0

  4. Zucker – McLeod – Quinn7:51

    xG 0.26–0.17 (59%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestTimmins – Bryson3:25

    xG 0.23–0.05 (84%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0

  2. Byram – Power3:53

    xG 0.18–0.10 (64%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0

  3. Bryson – Power3:47

    xG 0.22–0.21 (51%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0

Calgary Flames

Forward lines

  1. bestKadri – Farabee – Sharangovich8:56

    xG 0.55–0.33 (63%)attempts 6–11goals 2–1

  2. Lomberg – Beecher – Klapka5:25

    xG 0.24–0.12 (66%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0

  3. Backlund – Coleman – Zary8:25

    xG 0.42–0.40 (52%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0

  4. Huberdeau – Frost – Coronato9:52

    xG 0.23–0.79 (22%)attempts 5–17goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestAndersson – Bahl14:08

    xG 0.37–0.27 (58%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0

  2. Hanley – Pachal9:08

    xG 0.46–0.56 (45%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0

  3. Weegar – Kuznetsov14:30

    xG 0.66–0.93 (41%)attempts 11–21goals 1–2

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CGY 3.7 xGBUF 3.1 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CGYBUF

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.

Excitement 84/100 · #243 of 1312 this seasonSwing 1.59 · 11 goals in reachComeback index 51% (winner's lowest chance)
BUF 100%5050%50CGY 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 59% of the time.

CGY winsBUF wins

Simulated goal difference (CGY − BUF), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).