Tue, Dec 9, 2025·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Boston Bruins 5, St. Louis Blues 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 011 | 213 | 37 | 531 |
| STL | 110 | 03 | 113 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:27STLRobert ThomasPPAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Justin Faulk · Slap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 12:48BOSFraser MintenAssists: Marat Khusnutdinov, David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 14:34BOSMark KastelicAssists: Sean Kuraly, Victor Soderstrom · Deflected, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 4:51STLRobert ThomasAssists: Pavel Buchnevich · Snap, 0.27 xG2–2
- P3 8:01BOSMark KastelicGWGAssists: Sean Kuraly, Nikita Zadorov · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–2
- P3 11:33BOSFraser MintenAssists: David Pastrnak, Andrew Peeke · Slap, 0.10 xG4–2
- P3 18:19BOSPavel ZachaENAssists: Elias Lindholm, David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.78 xG5–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:54BOSPavel Zacha: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 6:59STLLogan Mailloux: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:59BOSCasey Mittelstadt: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:25BOSHampus Lindholm: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:23STLLogan Mailloux: Interference2 min
- P1 19:55STLNick Bjugstad: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestPastrnak – Khusnutdinov – Minten9:33
xG 1.00–0.58 (63%)attempts 14–8goals 2–1
- Arvidsson – Zacha – Mittelstadt8:58
xG 0.54–0.27 (67%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Jeannot – Kastelic11:18
xG 0.65–0.49 (57%)attempts 19–15goals 2–0
- Lindholm – Geekie – Steeves8:35
xG 0.48–0.35 (58%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – Zadorov2:06
xG 0.37–0.11 (77%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
- Zadorov – Aspirot13:46
xG 0.85–0.66 (56%)attempts 14–18goals 0–0
- Soderstrom – Lohrei11:25
xG 0.45–0.33 (58%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Thomas – Neighbours11:49
xG 0.48–0.36 (57%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Suter – Dvorsky2:35
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Schenn – Joseph – Holloway8:20
xG 0.22–0.23 (49%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Luff – Kaskimaki3:27
xG 0.14–0.21 (40%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Faulk – Fowler5:11
xG 0.13–0.14 (47%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Parayko – Broberg12:42
xG 0.42–0.57 (43%)attempts 8–19goals 0–0
- Fowler – Parayko2:42
xG 0.02–0.17 (12%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).