Tue, Dec 9, 2025·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Buffalo Sabres 4, Edmonton Oilers 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 17 | 214 | 06 | 11 | 428 |
| EDM | 08 | 010 | 312 | 00 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:01BUFJosh DoanPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Tage Thompson · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 11:03BUFTage ThompsonUnassisted · Snap, 0.33 xG2–0
- P2 11:59BUFJosh DoanPPAssists: Tage Thompson, Rasmus Dahlin · Between legs, 0.17 xG3–0
- P3 0:10EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 1:56EDMVasily PodkolzinAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Ty Emberson · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–2
- P3 19:58EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Evan Bouchard · Snap, 0.07 xG3–3
- OT 0:33BUFAlex TuchGWGAssists: Ryan McLeod, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.22 xG4–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 12:51EDMDarnell Nurse: Boarding2 min
- P1 18:28EDMDavid Tomasek: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 5:27BUFJack Quinn: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:19EDMZach Hyman: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 15:31BUFBeck Malenstyn: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 7:51BUFRasmus Dahlin: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:51EDMZach Hyman: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:59EDMAdam Henrique: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:11BUFAlex Tuch: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:17EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Kozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGreenway – Malenstyn – Dunne5:58
xG 0.28–0.08 (78%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Tuch – Thompson – Krebs9:59
xG 0.59–0.54 (52%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Doan – Kozak – Benson8:20
xG 0.29–0.27 (52%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- McLeod – Quinn – Rosen6:23
xG 0.28–0.53 (34%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSamuelsson – Power4:02
xG 0.33–0.18 (64%)attempts 1–6goals 1–0
- Bryson – Dahlin2:13
xG 0.12–0.08 (60%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Dahlin – Byram2:25
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestDraisaitl – Podkolzin – Savoie9:41
xG 0.41–0.17 (70%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid10:22
xG 0.46–0.27 (63%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Hyman – Draisaitl – McDavid3:16
xG 0.28–0.09 (76%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Henrique – Janmark – Mangiapane5:18
xG 0.14–0.40 (26%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard15:25
xG 1.07–0.63 (63%)attempts 18–7goals 1–1
- Kulak – Emberson9:16
xG 0.16–0.04 (78%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Nurse – Regula12:47
xG 0.21–0.60 (26%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).