Wed, Dec 10, 2025·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Detroit Red Wings 4, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 27 | 28 | 014 | 429 |
| CGY | 08 | 017 | 312 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:02DETAlex DeBrincatAssists: Patrick Kane, Andrew Copp · Snap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 4:33DETAxel Sandin-PellikkaAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Patrick Kane · Slap, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 7:41DETAlex DeBrincatAssists: Andrew Copp · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–0
- P2 9:09DETDylan LarkinGWGAssists: Lucas Raymond · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–0
- P3 8:02CGYJoel FarabeeUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–1
- P3 9:07CGYMatt CoronatoAssists: Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–2
- P3 14:40CGYMacKenzie WeegarAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Nazem Kadri · Slap, 0.03 xG4–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 18:11DETJohn Gibson: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:11CGYAdam Klapka: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:11CGYRyan Lomberg: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:11DETTravis Hamonic: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:24DETMarco Kasper: Holding2 min
- P2 3:51CGYBlake Coleman: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:27DETDylan Larkin: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:35DETAndrew Copp: Holding2 min
- P3 6:33CGYAdam Klapka: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:02DETAxel Sandin-Pellikka: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestLarkin – Raymond – Finnie13:30
xG 1.16–0.53 (68%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Kane – Copp – DeBrincat11:25
xG 0.91–0.48 (66%)attempts 10–20goals 3–0
- Soderblom – Kasper – Danielson9:23
xG 0.72–0.48 (60%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Compher – Rasmussen9:53
xG 0.28–0.50 (36%)attempts 6–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeider – Johansson7:32
xG 0.74–0.26 (74%)attempts 9–17goals 0–1
- Chiarot – Sandin-Pellikka12:20
xG 1.13–0.94 (55%)attempts 10–21goals 2–0
- Hamonic – Chiarot3:28
xG 0.15–0.07 (69%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Backlund – Coleman – Zary11:43
xG 0.42–0.49 (46%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Kadri – Farabee – Sharangovich10:10
xG 0.64–0.80 (44%)attempts 16–8goals 1–2
- Lomberg – Beecher – Klapka6:24
xG 0.20–0.50 (29%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Huberdeau – Frost – Coronato11:34
xG 0.25–0.62 (29%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHanley – Brzustewicz11:36
xG 0.59–0.00 (100%)attempts 16–2goals 1–0
- Andersson – Brzustewicz2:03
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Andersson – Bahl13:50
xG 0.40–0.93 (30%)attempts 17–15goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).