Thu, Dec 11, 2025·Prudential Center, Newark
Tampa Bay Lightning 8, New Jersey Devils 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 415 | 213 | 27 | 835 |
| NJD | 115 | 16 | 216 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:57TBLNick PaulAssists: Scott Sabourin · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 3:48TBLDarren RaddyshAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Brandon Hagel · Slap, 0.03 xG2–0
- P1 7:00NJDLuke HughesAssists: Brenden Dillon, Paul Cotter · Snap, 0.11 xG2–1
- P1 7:56TBLPontus HolmbergAssists: J.J. Moser, Yanni Gourde · Backhand, 0.03 xG3–1
- P1 15:00TBLJake GuentzelPPAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Darren Raddysh · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–1
- P2 6:19TBLOliver BjorkstrandGWGAssists: Jake Guentzel, Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.21 xG5–1
- P2 13:12NJDJesper BrattPPAssists: Simon Nemec, Stefan Noesen · Wrist, 0.25 xG5–2
- P2 16:35TBLBrandon HagelAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Declan Carlile · Snap, 0.03 xG6–2
- P3 3:13NJDAngus CrookshankAssists: Colton White, Simon Nemec · Wrist, 0.27 xG6–3
- P3 7:55TBLBrayden PointAssists: Nikita Kucherov, J.J. Moser · Wrist, 0.10 xG7–3
- P3 15:28NJDPaul CotterAssists: Cody Glass, Luke Hughes · Wrist, 0.15 xG7–4
- P3 15:57TBLOliver BjorkstrandPPAssists: Jake Guentzel, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.16 xG8–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 12:28NJDNico Hischier: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:53NJDSimon Nemec: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:10TBLScott Sabourin: Boarding2 min
- P1 17:10NJDBrenden Dillon: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:10TBLScott Sabourin: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:18TBLYanni Gourde: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 13:37TBLScott Sabourin: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:15NJDOndrej Palat: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Cirelli – Hagel9:37
xG 0.47–0.13 (78%)attempts 13–3goals 1–0
- Guentzel – Bjorkstrand – Point9:00
xG 0.44–0.27 (62%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Sabourin – Paul – Douglas7:47
xG 0.11–0.31 (25%)attempts 1–7goals 1–1
- Gourde – Girgensons – Holmberg14:03
xG 0.20–0.77 (20%)attempts 10–18goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCrozier – Carlile13:41
xG 0.68–0.28 (71%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
- Raddysh – Moser14:39
xG 0.59–0.50 (54%)attempts 17–12goals 3–0
- D'Astous – Lilleberg13:54
xG 0.52–0.68 (43%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestNoesen – Bratt – Hischier10:36
xG 1.24–0.44 (74%)attempts 18–12goals 0–1
- Glendening – Crookshank – Parent6:58
xG 0.26–0.11 (71%)attempts 10–1goals 0–1
- Brown – Glass – Gritsyuk13:30
xG 0.44–0.39 (53%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
- Palat – Cotter – Mercer10:32
xG 0.36–0.42 (46%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Siegenthaler14:04
xG 1.44–0.55 (73%)attempts 31–8goals 0–1
- Hamilton – Hughes2:15
xG 0.03–0.03 (46%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- White – Nemec13:32
xG 0.44–0.68 (39%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).