Thu, Dec 11, 2025·Capital One Arena, Washington
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Washington Capitals 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 013 | 116 | 110 | 00 | 1 | 339 |
| WSH | 04 | 15 | 113 | 03 | 0 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:00WSHConnor McMichaelAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Rasmus Sandin · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 13:43CARNikolaj EhlersAssists: Logan Stankoven, Alexander Nikishin · Snap, 0.18 xG1–1
- P3 11:32WSHNic DowdAssists: Rasmus Sandin, Connor McMichael · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 17:45CARLogan StankovenAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Jalen Chatfield · Snap, 0.12 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. WSH Anthony Beauvillier stopped
- 2. CAR Seth Jarvis scored
- 3. WSH Dylan Strome stopped
- 4. CAR Andrei Svechnikov stopped
- 5. WSH Sonny Milano stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 18:55WSHJustin Sourdif: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:29WSHNic Dowd: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:02CARJordan Martinook: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:02WSHNic Dowd: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:35CARK'Andre Miller: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestAho – Svechnikov – Jarvis13:25
xG 1.31–0.34 (79%)attempts 20–7goals 0–0
- Ehlers – Stankoven – Blake12:17
xG 0.87–0.52 (63%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
- Hall – Jankowski – Robinson6:22
xG 0.42–0.48 (47%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Staal – Martinook – Carrier11:17
xG 0.45–0.55 (45%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWalker – Miller19:06
xG 1.19–0.84 (59%)attempts 24–14goals 0–1
- Nikishin – Nystrom10:07
xG 0.50–0.42 (54%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Gostisbehere – Chatfield18:14
xG 0.65–0.89 (42%)attempts 22–16goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Ovechkin – Strome – Beauvillier4:32
xG 0.30–0.32 (48%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Dowd – McMichael – Frank2:50
xG 0.08–0.14 (35%)attempts 1–3goals 1–0
- Milano – Duhaime – Lapierre3:30
xG 0.09–0.20 (33%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Dowd – Beauvillier – Frank7:17
xG 0.09–0.37 (20%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Sandin16:04
xG 1.17–0.51 (70%)attempts 13–25goals 1–0
- Carlson – Fehérváry13:23
xG 0.64–1.30 (33%)attempts 13–21goals 0–1
- Roy – Chychrun18:14
xG 0.29–1.30 (18%)attempts 10–23goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).