Sat, Dec 13, 2025·UBS Arena, Elmont
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, New York Islanders 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 08 | 117 | 18 | 01 | 1 | 234 |
| NYI | 29 | 01 | 06 | 01 | 2 | 317 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:05NYIMatthew SchaeferPPAssists: Anthony Duclair, Mathew Barzal · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 10:16NYICalum RitchieAssists: Anthony Duclair · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 10:13TBLDarren RaddyshPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Jake Guentzel · Slap, 0.16 xG1–2
- P3 3:20TBLJ.J. MoserAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. TBL Jake Guentzel stopped
- 2. NYI Mathew Barzal scored
- 3. TBL Brayden Point scored
- 4. NYI Simon Holmstrom stopped
- 5. TBL Nikita Kucherov stopped
- 6. NYI Emil Heineman scored
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:12TBLBrayden Point: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 1:45NYIMaxim Shabanov: Hooking2 min
- P1 2:11TBLCharle-Edouard D'Astous: Hooking2 min
- P1 0:00TBLBrandon Hagel: Abuse of officials2 min
- P2 1:22NYICalum Ritchie: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 8:17NYITravis Mitchell: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 9:20NYICasey Cizikas: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:50NYISimon Holmstrom: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:01TBLCharle-Edouard D'Astous: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against Ritchie
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestGourde – Girgensons – Holmberg10:32
xG 0.17–0.07 (71%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Cirelli – Hagel8:13
xG 0.61–0.55 (52%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Sabourin – Paul – James6:40
xG 0.22–0.17 (56%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Kucherov – Guentzel – Point4:21
xG 0.11–0.10 (52%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCrozier – Moser3:03
xG 0.43–0.07 (87%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Raddysh – Moser12:55
xG 0.76–0.49 (61%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- D'Astous – Lilleberg8:45
xG 0.27–0.09 (75%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestDrouin – Barzal – Heineman12:11
xG 0.57–0.36 (61%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Lee – Pageau – Holmstrom7:41
xG 0.31–0.17 (65%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Cizikas – MacLean – Gatcomb8:46
xG 0.13–0.27 (33%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Duclair – Ritchie – Shabanov7:11
xG 0.09–0.42 (18%)attempts 1–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Pelech – Pulock2:43
xG 0.00–0.04 (10%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Pelech – DeAngelo9:18
xG 0.35–0.43 (45%)attempts 4–15goals 0–1
- Mayfield – Mitchell9:16
xG 0.27–0.35 (43%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).