Thu, Dec 18, 2025·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Buffalo Sabres 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 112 | 110 | 15 | 327 |
| BUF | 14 | 212 | 212 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:40BUFJack QuinnAssists: Mattias Samuelsson, Zach Benson · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 8:38PHINoah CatesAssists: Bobby Brink · Snap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 11:01PHICam YorkAssists: Trevor Zegras, Bobby Brink · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 16:54BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 19:30BUFNoah OstlundAssists: Owen Power, Alex Tuch · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 10:20BUFJosh NorrisPPGWGAssists: Zach Benson · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–4
- P3 14:28PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Emil Andrae, Jamie Drysdale · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–4
- P3 19:52BUFRyan McLeodENAssists: Mattias Samuelsson · Wrist, 0.79 xG3–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:18BUFRasmus Dahlin: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:23PHITravis Konecny: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:52BUFAlex Tuch: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:42PHIRasmus Ristolainen: Cross checking2 min
- P2 11:18PHIMatvei Michkov: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 10:02PHIBobby Brink: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:19PHITrevor Zegras: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:41BUFMattias Samuelsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dvorak won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestDvorak – Konecny – Zegras10:23
xG 0.81–0.45 (64%)attempts 15–9goals 1–2
- Cates – Brink – Michkov7:18
xG 0.11–0.09 (55%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Konecny – Zegras – Brink2:06
xG 0.11–0.12 (46%)attempts 1–3goals 1–0
- Couturier – Grundstrom – Tippett9:21
xG 0.29–0.37 (44%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – Ristolainen12:37
xG 0.91–0.53 (63%)attempts 17–11goals 0–1
- Sanheim – York13:13
xG 0.58–0.23 (71%)attempts 10–7goals 2–2
- Andrae – Drysdale14:34
xG 0.69–0.38 (65%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Krebs – Doan9:01
xG 0.61–0.18 (77%)attempts 11–3goals 1–1
- Tuch – Norris – Ostlund9:54
xG 0.33–0.34 (49%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Norris – Doan – Ostlund2:18
xG 0.03–0.07 (31%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Tuch – Thompson – Krebs3:41
xG 0.10–0.18 (37%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSamuelsson – Dahlin11:10
xG 0.69–0.00 (100%)attempts 13–2goals 1–0
- Timmins – Byram8:56
xG 0.28–0.07 (81%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Dahlin – Byram2:31
xG 0.07–0.18 (28%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).